Explaining criminal careers : implications for justice policy / / John F. MacLeod, Peter G. Grove, David P. Farrington.

• Superior document: Clarendon studies in criminology
• Author: MacLeod, John F.
• TeilnehmendeR: Grove, Peter G.; Farrington, David P.
• Year of Publication: 2012
• Edition: First edition.
• Language: English
• Series: Clarendon studies in criminology.
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (273 pages) :; illustrations.
• Notes: Description based upon print version of record.

Using the Home Office Offenders Index, a unique database containing records of all criminal convictions in England and Wales since 1963, this simple but influential theory makes exact quantitative predictions about criminal careers and age-crime curves, in particular the prison population contingent on a given sentencing policy.

Table of Contents

Cover; Contents; 1. Criminal Career Research, Mathematical Models, and Testing Quantitative Predictions from Theories; Background; Blumstein and Cohen (1979); The National Academy Panel; Explaining the Growth in Recidivism Probabilities; Explaining the Individual Offending Frequency; Objections to Criminal Career Research; Criminal Career Research in the Last 20 Years; Aims of this Book; Methodological Notes; 2. An Analysis of the Offenders Index; Sources of Data; Recidivism; Reconviction Rate; Reconciling the Risk and Rate Categories; Gender; Is Criminality Constant over the Cohorts?

3. The Theory and a Simple ModelOrientation; Introduction; The Assumptions of our Theory; Explaining the Age-Crime Curve; The Rise in Crime from 10 to 17 Years of Age; Modelling the Age-Crime Curve; The 100,000 Active Prolific Offenders; Corollaries and Comments; Conclusion; 4. Criminal Careers of Serious, Less Serious, and Trivial Offenders; Orientation; Introduction; Offenders with Custody at First Court Appearance; Custody Rates; Serious Offenders; Less Serious Offenders; Serious Offences; Simplified Modelling of Convictions for Serious Offences; Simplified Modelling of all Convictions

Versatility or Specialization in OffendingTrivial Offenders; Conclusion; 5. Is Age the Primary Influence on Offending?; Orientation; Introduction; Possible Types of Age Dependence; Testing the Theories; Conclusion; 6. Characteristics of Individuals; Orientation; Introduction; The Rationale and Development of OASys; Analysis of the Pilot OASys Data; The Distribution of Section 11 Scores; Is there Structure in the Section 11 Information in OASys?; Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Section 11 Questions; Conclusions from the OASys Pilot Data Analysis; Analysis of Operational OASys Data

Analysis of April 2004 PNC Conviction DataConclusions; 7. Applications for Managing the Criminal Justice System; Orientation; Introduction; The Flow Model; Predicting the Prison Population; The DNA Database; Conclusion; 8. Criminal Policy Implications; Orientation; Introduction; Overview of the Theory; The Categories; Areas where Policy could Influence Crime; Childhood Early Interventions; Early Career Interventions; Increasing the Efficiency of Conviction; Offender Treatment Programmes; Prolific and other Priority Offenders; Implications and Uses of the Theory; Frequently Asked Questions

9. Summary and ConclusionsSummary; The Origin of the Offender Categories; Criminality; Recidivism; Conviction Rate λ; The Effects of Formal Warnings and Cautions; The Criminal Career Debate; Conclusions; Appendix: Mathematical Notes; Introduction; Constant Probability Systems; Allocation of Offenders to the Risk/Rate Categories; An Alternative Modelling Approach; Incapacitation; Steady State Solutions; Estimating the Active Offender Population Size; Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Recidivism Parameters; Bibliography; Index; A; B; C; D; F; G; I; L; M; N; O; P; R; S; T; V