Expert Political Judgment : : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / / Philip E. Tetlock.
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find th...
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Place / Publishing House: | Princeton, NJ : : Princeton University Press, , [2017] ©2017 |
Year of Publication: | 2017 |
Edition: | New |
Language: | English |
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Physical Description: | 1 online resource (368 p.) |
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Tetlock, Philip E., author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / Philip E. Tetlock. New Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press, [2017] ©2017 1 online resource (368 p.) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier text file PDF rda Frontmatter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Preface -- Preface to the 2017 Edition -- CHAPTER 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable -- CHAPTER 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism -- CHAPTER 3. Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge -- CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets -- CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals -- CHAPTER 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back -- CHAPTER 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? -- CHAPTER 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability -- Methodological Appendix -- Technical Appendix -- Index restricted access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec online access with authorization star Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Issued also in print. Mode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. In English. Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 30. Aug 2021) Ideology. Political psychology. POLITICAL SCIENCE / General. bisacsh Tetlock, Philip E. Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2017 9783110540550 ZDB-23-DGG Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Social Sciences 2017 9783110548242 ZDB-23-DSW Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Princeton University Press Complete eBook-Package 2017 9783110543322 print 9780691175973 https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9781400888818 Cover https://www.degruyter.com/cover/covers/9781400888818.jpg |
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author |
Tetlock, Philip E., Tetlock, Philip E., |
spellingShingle |
Tetlock, Philip E., Tetlock, Philip E., Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / Frontmatter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Preface -- Preface to the 2017 Edition -- CHAPTER 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable -- CHAPTER 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism -- CHAPTER 3. Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge -- CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets -- CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals -- CHAPTER 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back -- CHAPTER 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? -- CHAPTER 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability -- Methodological Appendix -- Technical Appendix -- Index |
author_facet |
Tetlock, Philip E., Tetlock, Philip E., Tetlock, Philip E. |
author_variant |
p e t pe pet p e t pe pet |
author_role |
VerfasserIn VerfasserIn |
author2 |
Tetlock, Philip E. |
author2_variant |
p e t pe pet |
author2_role |
TeilnehmendeR |
author_sort |
Tetlock, Philip E., |
title |
Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / |
title_sub |
How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / |
title_full |
Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / Philip E. Tetlock. |
title_fullStr |
Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / Philip E. Tetlock. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / Philip E. Tetlock. |
title_auth |
Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / |
title_alt |
Frontmatter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Preface -- Preface to the 2017 Edition -- CHAPTER 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable -- CHAPTER 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism -- CHAPTER 3. Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge -- CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets -- CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals -- CHAPTER 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back -- CHAPTER 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? -- CHAPTER 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability -- Methodological Appendix -- Technical Appendix -- Index |
title_new |
Expert Political Judgment : |
title_sort |
expert political judgment : how good is it? how can we know? - new edition / |
publisher |
Princeton University Press, |
publishDate |
2017 |
physical |
1 online resource (368 p.) Issued also in print. |
edition |
New |
contents |
Frontmatter -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Preface -- Preface to the 2017 Edition -- CHAPTER 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable -- CHAPTER 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism -- CHAPTER 3. Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge -- CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets -- CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals -- CHAPTER 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back -- CHAPTER 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? -- CHAPTER 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability -- Methodological Appendix -- Technical Appendix -- Index |
isbn |
9781400888818 9783110540550 9783110548242 9783110543322 9780691175973 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888818 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9781400888818 https://www.degruyter.com/cover/covers/9781400888818.jpg |
illustrated |
Not Illustrated |
dewey-hundreds |
300 - Social sciences |
dewey-tens |
320 - Political science |
dewey-ones |
320 - Political science |
dewey-full |
320/.01/9 |
dewey-sort |
3320 11 19 |
dewey-raw |
320/.01/9 |
dewey-search |
320/.01/9 |
doi_str_mv |
10.1515/9781400888818 |
oclc_num |
993581675 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT tetlockphilipe expertpoliticaljudgmenthowgoodisithowcanweknownewedition |
status_str |
n |
ids_txt_mv |
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cr |
hierarchy_parent_title |
Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2017 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Social Sciences 2017 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Princeton University Press Complete eBook-Package 2017 |
is_hierarchy_title |
Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / |
container_title |
Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2017 |
author2_original_writing_str_mv |
noLinkedField |
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