Rational Decisions / / Ken Binmore.
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to...
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Place / Publishing House: | Princeton, NJ : : Princeton University Press, , [2008] ©2009 |
Year of Publication: | 2008 |
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Binmore, Ken, author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut Rational Decisions / Ken Binmore. Course Book Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press, [2008] ©2009 1 online resource (216 p.) : 43 line illus. text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier text file PDF rda The Gorman Lectures in Economics ; 2 Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- 1. Revealed Preference -- 2. Game Theory -- 3. Risk -- 4. Utilitarianism -- 5. Classical Probability -- 6. Frequency -- 7. Bayesian Decision Theory -- 8. Epistemology -- 9. Large Worlds -- 10. Mathematical Notes -- References -- Index -- Backmatter restricted access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec online access with authorization star It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making. Issued also in print. Mode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. In English. Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 30. Aug 2021) BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Decision-Making & Problem Solving. Bayesian statistical decision theory. MATHEMATICS Probability & Statistics Bayesian Analysis. Statistical decision. MATHEMATICS / Game Theory. bisacsh Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Princeton University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 9783110442502 print 9780691149899 https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400833092 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9781400833092 Cover https://www.degruyter.com/cover/covers/9781400833092.jpg |
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English |
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Binmore, Ken, Binmore, Ken, |
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Binmore, Ken, Binmore, Ken, Rational Decisions / The Gorman Lectures in Economics ; Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- 1. Revealed Preference -- 2. Game Theory -- 3. Risk -- 4. Utilitarianism -- 5. Classical Probability -- 6. Frequency -- 7. Bayesian Decision Theory -- 8. Epistemology -- 9. Large Worlds -- 10. Mathematical Notes -- References -- Index -- Backmatter |
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Binmore, Ken, Binmore, Ken, |
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Binmore, Ken, |
title |
Rational Decisions / |
title_full |
Rational Decisions / Ken Binmore. |
title_fullStr |
Rational Decisions / Ken Binmore. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rational Decisions / Ken Binmore. |
title_auth |
Rational Decisions / |
title_alt |
Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- 1. Revealed Preference -- 2. Game Theory -- 3. Risk -- 4. Utilitarianism -- 5. Classical Probability -- 6. Frequency -- 7. Bayesian Decision Theory -- 8. Epistemology -- 9. Large Worlds -- 10. Mathematical Notes -- References -- Index -- Backmatter |
title_new |
Rational Decisions / |
title_sort |
rational decisions / |
series |
The Gorman Lectures in Economics ; |
series2 |
The Gorman Lectures in Economics ; |
publisher |
Princeton University Press, |
publishDate |
2008 |
physical |
1 online resource (216 p.) : 43 line illus. Issued also in print. |
edition |
Course Book |
contents |
Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- 1. Revealed Preference -- 2. Game Theory -- 3. Risk -- 4. Utilitarianism -- 5. Classical Probability -- 6. Frequency -- 7. Bayesian Decision Theory -- 8. Epistemology -- 9. Large Worlds -- 10. Mathematical Notes -- References -- Index -- Backmatter |
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9781400833092 9783110442502 9780691149899 |
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QA279 |
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QA 3279.5 B56 42009EB |
genre_facet |
Decision-Making & Probability & Bayesian Analysis. |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400833092 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9781400833092 https://www.degruyter.com/cover/covers/9781400833092.jpg |
illustrated |
Illustrated |
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500 - Science |
dewey-tens |
510 - Mathematics |
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519 - Probabilities & applied mathematics |
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519.542 |
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Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Princeton University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 |
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Rational Decisions / |
container_title |
Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Princeton University Press eBook-Package Backlist 2000-2013 |
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