Surprise Attack : : The Victim’s Perspective, With a New Preface / / Ephraim Kam.

• Superior document: Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter HUP eBook Package Archive 1893-1999
• VerfasserIn: Kam, Ephraim,
• MitwirkendeR: Schelling, Thomas C.,
• Place / Publishing House: Cambridge, MA : : Harvard University Press, , [2004]; ©2004
• Year of Publication: 2004
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (304 p.)

Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.--Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel

Table of Contents

Frontmatter -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Foreword -- Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons -- Introduction -- Part I. The Components of Surprise Attack -- 1. The Essence of Surprise Attack -- 2. Information and Indicators -- 3. Intentions and Capabilities -- Part II. Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis -- 4. Conceptions and Incoming Information -- 5. The Process of Analysis -- Part III. The Environment -- 6. The Analyst and the Small Group -- 7. Organizational Obstacles -- 8. Intelligence and Decision Makers -- Conclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable? -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index