Bernoulli's Fallacy : : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / / Aubrey Clayton.
There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in...
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Place / Publishing House: | New York, NY : : Columbia University Press, , [2021] ©2021 |
Year of Publication: | 2021 |
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Clayton, Aubrey, author. aut http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut Bernoulli's Fallacy : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / Aubrey Clayton. New York, NY : Columbia University Press, [2021] ©2021 1 online resource : 12 b&w illustrations text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier text file PDF rda Frontmatter -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- INTRODUCTION -- 1. WHAT IS PROBABILITY? -- 2. THE TITULAR FALLACY -- 3. ADOLPHE QUETELET’S BELL CURVE BRIDGE -- 4. THE FREQUENTIST JIHAD -- 5. THE QUOTE-UNQUOTE LOGIC OF ORTHODOX STATISTICS -- 6. THE REPLICATION CRISIS/OPPORTUNITY -- 7. THE WAY OUT -- NOTES -- BIBLIOGRAPHY -- INDEX restricted access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec online access with authorization star There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it. Mode of access: Internet via World Wide Web. In English. Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 01. Dez 2022) Binomial distribution. Law of large numbers. Mathematical statistics Philosophy. Probabilities Philosophy 19th century. Probabilities Philosophy 20th century. MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy. bisacsh Bayesian statistics. frequentist statistics. history of math. history of statistics. probability. replication crisis. statistics and science. statistics. Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Columbia University Press Complete eBook-Package 2021 9783110739077 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2021 English 9783110754001 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2021 9783110753776 ZDB-23-DGG Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Mathematics 2021 English 9783110754131 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Mathematics 2021 9783110753905 ZDB-23-DMA https://doi.org/10.7312/clay19994 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780231553353 Cover https://www.degruyter.com/document/cover/isbn/9780231553353/original |
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English |
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author |
Clayton, Aubrey, Clayton, Aubrey, |
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Clayton, Aubrey, Clayton, Aubrey, Bernoulli's Fallacy : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / Frontmatter -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- INTRODUCTION -- 1. WHAT IS PROBABILITY? -- 2. THE TITULAR FALLACY -- 3. ADOLPHE QUETELET’S BELL CURVE BRIDGE -- 4. THE FREQUENTIST JIHAD -- 5. THE QUOTE-UNQUOTE LOGIC OF ORTHODOX STATISTICS -- 6. THE REPLICATION CRISIS/OPPORTUNITY -- 7. THE WAY OUT -- NOTES -- BIBLIOGRAPHY -- INDEX |
author_facet |
Clayton, Aubrey, Clayton, Aubrey, |
author_variant |
a c ac a c ac |
author_role |
VerfasserIn VerfasserIn |
author_sort |
Clayton, Aubrey, |
title |
Bernoulli's Fallacy : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / |
title_sub |
Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / |
title_full |
Bernoulli's Fallacy : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / Aubrey Clayton. |
title_fullStr |
Bernoulli's Fallacy : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / Aubrey Clayton. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bernoulli's Fallacy : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / Aubrey Clayton. |
title_auth |
Bernoulli's Fallacy : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / |
title_alt |
Frontmatter -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- INTRODUCTION -- 1. WHAT IS PROBABILITY? -- 2. THE TITULAR FALLACY -- 3. ADOLPHE QUETELET’S BELL CURVE BRIDGE -- 4. THE FREQUENTIST JIHAD -- 5. THE QUOTE-UNQUOTE LOGIC OF ORTHODOX STATISTICS -- 6. THE REPLICATION CRISIS/OPPORTUNITY -- 7. THE WAY OUT -- NOTES -- BIBLIOGRAPHY -- INDEX |
title_new |
Bernoulli's Fallacy : |
title_sort |
bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / |
publisher |
Columbia University Press, |
publishDate |
2021 |
physical |
1 online resource : 12 b&w illustrations |
contents |
Frontmatter -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- INTRODUCTION -- 1. WHAT IS PROBABILITY? -- 2. THE TITULAR FALLACY -- 3. ADOLPHE QUETELET’S BELL CURVE BRIDGE -- 4. THE FREQUENTIST JIHAD -- 5. THE QUOTE-UNQUOTE LOGIC OF ORTHODOX STATISTICS -- 6. THE REPLICATION CRISIS/OPPORTUNITY -- 7. THE WAY OUT -- NOTES -- BIBLIOGRAPHY -- INDEX |
isbn |
9780231553353 9783110739077 9783110754001 9783110753776 9783110754131 9783110753905 |
callnumber-first |
Q - Science |
callnumber-subject |
QA - Mathematics |
callnumber-label |
QA273 |
callnumber-sort |
QA 3273 A35 C53 42021 |
era_facet |
19th century. 20th century. |
url |
https://doi.org/10.7312/clay19994 https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9780231553353 https://www.degruyter.com/document/cover/isbn/9780231553353/original |
illustrated |
Not Illustrated |
dewey-hundreds |
500 - Science |
dewey-tens |
510 - Mathematics |
dewey-ones |
519 - Probabilities & applied mathematics |
dewey-full |
519.2 |
dewey-sort |
3519.2 |
dewey-raw |
519.2 |
dewey-search |
519.2 |
doi_str_mv |
10.7312/clay19994 |
oclc_num |
1240264669 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT claytonaubrey bernoullisfallacystatisticalillogicandthecrisisofmodernscience |
status_str |
n |
ids_txt_mv |
(DE-B1597)600423 (OCoLC)1240264669 |
carrierType_str_mv |
cr |
hierarchy_parent_title |
Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Columbia University Press Complete eBook-Package 2021 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2021 English Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE COMPLETE 2021 Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Mathematics 2021 English Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter EBOOK PACKAGE Mathematics 2021 |
is_hierarchy_title |
Bernoulli's Fallacy : Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science / |
container_title |
Title is part of eBook package: De Gruyter Columbia University Press Complete eBook-Package 2021 |
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1770176085808381952 |
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