Hidden Debt : : Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia.
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Place / Publishing House: | Washington, D. C. : : World Bank Publications,, 2021. ©2021. |
Year of Publication: | 2021 |
Edition: | 1st ed. |
Language: | English |
Series: | South Asia Development Matters Series
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Melecky, Martin. Hidden Debt : Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia. 1st ed. Washington, D. C. : World Bank Publications, 2021. ©2021. 1 online resource (197 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier South Asia Development Matters Series Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Executive Summary -- Spotlight ES.1 -- Abbreviations -- Overview -- Analytical Framework -- Empirical Findings -- Policy Recommendations -- Notes -- References -- 1 Public-Private Partnerships in South Asia: Managing the Fiscal Risks from Hidden Liabilities While Delivering Efficiency Gains -- The Need to Carefully Manage the Fiscal and Economic Risks of PPPs -- Balancing the Efficiency Gains from PPPs against Their Risks and Liabilities -- Booming Infrastructure PPPs, Their Country and Sector Distribution, and Signs of Distress in South Asia -- Fiscal Risks from Contingent Liabilities Due to Early Termination of PPPs -- Features of Contract Design That Matter: Exploring the Link between PPP Contract Design and Early Terminations of Highway PPPs in India -- Improving Government Capacity, Due Diligence, and Contract Design to Better Manage the Fiscal Risks of the Growing PPP Programs in South Asia -- Annex 1A. Methodology to Determine the Value at Risk of a Public-Private Partnership -- Annex 1B. Definitions of Variables -- Annex 1C. Distribution of South Asian Public-Private Partnership Projects by Sector -- Annex 1D. Imputing the Missing Values for Predictions -- Annex 1E. Model Selection -- Annex 1F. Estimation Tables -- Notes -- References -- 2 State-Owned Banks versus Private Banks in South Asia: Agency Tensions, Susceptibility to Distress, and the Fiscal and Economic Costs of Distress -- The Upsides and Downsides of State-Owned Commercial Banks -- The Omnipresence of State-Owned Commercial Banks in South Asia -- Bank Business Models by Ownership Type: The Example of India -- Understanding Bank Distress and Its Main Factors -- Analyzing the Effect of Firms' Banking with SOCBs Compared with Private Banks -- Policy Recommendations -- Annex 2A. Methodology for Determining Bank Distress. Annex 2B. Regression Tables: Probability of Distress for South Asian Banks and Adjustments to Distress, 2009-18 -- Annex 2C. Regression Tables for South Asian Scheduled Commercial Banks: Country Results, 2009-18 -- Notes -- References -- 3 South Asia's State-Owned Enterprises: Surprise Liabilities versus Positive Externalities -- The Importance of Paying More Attention to the Hidden Liabilities of SOEs in South Asia -- Describing the Opaque and Complex SOE Sector in South Asia Using Data -- Analyzing the Roots and Extent of Hidden Liabilities in South Asian SOEs -- What Drives the Contingent Liabilities from SOEs? -- The SOE Sector Has a Role to Play in South Asia, Such as through Its Long-Term Investment in R& -- D and Positive Spillovers on Private Firms -- Only a Combination of Internal and External Policy Reforms Can Help Better Manage Contingent Liabilities from SOEs in South Asia -- Annex 3A. Sources of Data about South Asian SOEs -- Annex 3B. Summary Statistics and Estimations for Indian Enterprises -- Annex 3C. Productivity Estimation -- Notes -- References -- 4 Subnational Governments in South Asia: Balancing the Fiscal Risks of Government Decentralization with the Returns -- The Promise and Risks of Fiscal Decentralization in South Asia -- The Unclear Extent of Subnational Fiscal Liabilities and Rising Fiscal Risks in South Asia -- Fiscal Responsibility Legislation and Subnational Fiscal Risks -- Subnational Debt, Data, and Transparency: Lessons from Pakistan -- Estimating Contingent Liability Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Mitigating Factors Using Data for India -- Results: Examining the Occurrence of Contingent Liability Shocks -- Improved Transparency and Fiscal Rules, the Disciplining Role of Markets, and Better Intergovernmental Frameworks Are Needed to Achieve Better Subnational Fiscal Outcomes in South Asia -- Annex 4A. Methodology. Annex 4B. The Kalman Filter -- Annex 4C. Regression Tables -- Notes -- References -- Boxes -- Box ES.1 Applying the Purpose, Incentives, Transparency, and Accountability (PITA) Recommendations -- Box 1.1 The Hidden Debt of National Highways in India -- Box 1.2 Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk Scenarios for Computing Losses to the Government from Contingent Liabilities of Public-Private Partnerships -- Box 2.1 Main Findings of the Overall Analysis -- Box 4.1 Recommendations for Improving Fiscal Reporting and Transparency in Pakistan -- Figures -- Figure O.1 Some South Asian Governments (India, Pakistan) Use State-Owned Commercial Banks, State-Owned Enterprises, and Public-Private Partnerships More Commonly Than the Global Benchmark While Others (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) Are Catching Up -- Figure O.2 Analytical Framework: Links from Distress to Adjustments to Impacts -- Figure O.3 Highlights of the Report's Findings on Distress, Adjustments, and Impacts -- Figure O.4 State-Owned Commercial Banks Adjust Differently from Private Banks in Times of Distress, 2009-18 -- Figure O.5 Annual Government Support for South Asian State-Owned Enterprises Could Account for More Than 2 Percent of GDP, on Average, Depending on the Country, 2015-17 -- Figure O.6 A Profound Macrofinancial Crisis Could Trigger Failures among Public-Private Partnerships That Would Cost South Asian Governments up to 4 Percent of Revenues -- Figure O.7 The Liabilities of Loss-Making State-Owned Enterprises in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka Have Been Huge, but More Than 80 Percent of Losses in Each Country Have Occurred in Only the Top 10 Loss-Makers -- Figure O.8 Local Investments in Indian States Fall Significantly with a Contingent Liability Shock, Keep Dropping the Year After, and Stay Well Below the Trend for Three Years. Figure O.9 Checks and Balances on Government Executives Help Prevent Distress of Public-Private Partnerships -- Figure 1.1 Active Portfolio of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure in South Asia, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.2 Sectoral Distribution of Public-Private Partnership Projects with Financial Closure in South Asia, by Country and Number of Cancellations, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.3 Number of National Highway Public-Private Partnership Projects in India, by Year of Financial Closure, 2001-18 -- Figure 1.4 Traditional versus Public-Private Partnership Procurement of Infrastructure in India, 2001-17 -- Figure 1.5 Distribution of the Percentage of Contract Period Elapsed, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.6 Distribution of Failures of Public-Private Partnerships over the Contract Period, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.7 Estimates of Survival and Cumulative Hazard for Public-Private Partnership Projects -- Figure 1.8 Factors That Predict the Likelihood of Public-Private Partnership Distress -- Figure 1.9 Distribution of Predicted Probabilities of Distress for Public-Private Partnerships in South Asia, from 2020 to the End of Contractual Period -- Figure 1.10 Composition of Public-Private Partnership Financing for Active Projects in South Asia, by Country, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.11 Estimated Total Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of GDP, 2020-24 -- Figure 1.12 Estimated Total Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of Government Revenues for a Single Year -- Figure 1.13 Estimated Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia over Different Periods as a Percentage of Expected Government Revenues, 2020-24. Figure 1.14 Estimated Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio Assuming Profound Macrofinancial Shocks, as a Percentage of Government Revenues, 2020-24 -- Figure 1.15 Number of Indian Highway Projects Canceled versus Not Canceled, by Contract Type and Financial Closure Year, 2010-14 -- Figure 1E.1 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Semi-parametric Methods -- Figure 1E.2 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Parametric Methods -- Figure 1E.3 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Flexible Parametric Methods -- Figure 2.1 South Asia: Share of State-Owned Commercial Bank Assets in Total Banking Assets, 2016 -- Figure 2.2 Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan: State-Owned Commercial Banks' Underperformance Relative to Domestic and Foreign Private Banks, 2009-18 Average -- Figure 2.3 India: Branch Networks and Total Credit, 2018 -- Figure 2.4 India: Selected Funding and Credit Indicators, 2018 -- Figure 2.5 India: Selected Business Model, Performance, and Soundness Indicators, 2018 -- Figure 2.6 South Asia's Four Main Economies: Business Models and Strategies of State-Owned Commercial Banks versus Privately Owned Commercial Banks, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.7 India: Characteristics of the Average Client Firms of Scheduled Commercial Banks, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.8 India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka: Interest Coverage Ratio by Bank Type, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.9 Differences in How State-Owned Commercial Banks and Domestically Owned Private Banks Adjust in Times of Distress -- Figure 2.10 Capital Injections by the Indian Government to Distressed State-Owned Commercial Banks, FY2009-FY2020 -- Figure 3.1 Total Number and Average Revenue of South Asian State-Owned Enterprises, 2017 -- Figure 3.2 State-Owned Enterprise Revenue by Sector in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, 2016-17. Figure 3.3 Net Profit/Loss of South Asian State-Owned Enterprises, 2014-17. Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources. Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries. Risk. South Asia. Government business enterprises--Finance. Electronic books. Print version: Melecky, Martin Hidden Debt Washington, D. C. : World Bank Publications,c2021 ProQuest (Firm) https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/oeawat/detail.action?docID=6680954 Click to View |
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Melecky, Martin. Hidden Debt : Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia. South Asia Development Matters Series Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Executive Summary -- Spotlight ES.1 -- Abbreviations -- Overview -- Analytical Framework -- Empirical Findings -- Policy Recommendations -- Notes -- References -- 1 Public-Private Partnerships in South Asia: Managing the Fiscal Risks from Hidden Liabilities While Delivering Efficiency Gains -- The Need to Carefully Manage the Fiscal and Economic Risks of PPPs -- Balancing the Efficiency Gains from PPPs against Their Risks and Liabilities -- Booming Infrastructure PPPs, Their Country and Sector Distribution, and Signs of Distress in South Asia -- Fiscal Risks from Contingent Liabilities Due to Early Termination of PPPs -- Features of Contract Design That Matter: Exploring the Link between PPP Contract Design and Early Terminations of Highway PPPs in India -- Improving Government Capacity, Due Diligence, and Contract Design to Better Manage the Fiscal Risks of the Growing PPP Programs in South Asia -- Annex 1A. Methodology to Determine the Value at Risk of a Public-Private Partnership -- Annex 1B. Definitions of Variables -- Annex 1C. Distribution of South Asian Public-Private Partnership Projects by Sector -- Annex 1D. Imputing the Missing Values for Predictions -- Annex 1E. Model Selection -- Annex 1F. Estimation Tables -- Notes -- References -- 2 State-Owned Banks versus Private Banks in South Asia: Agency Tensions, Susceptibility to Distress, and the Fiscal and Economic Costs of Distress -- The Upsides and Downsides of State-Owned Commercial Banks -- The Omnipresence of State-Owned Commercial Banks in South Asia -- Bank Business Models by Ownership Type: The Example of India -- Understanding Bank Distress and Its Main Factors -- Analyzing the Effect of Firms' Banking with SOCBs Compared with Private Banks -- Policy Recommendations -- Annex 2A. Methodology for Determining Bank Distress. Annex 2B. Regression Tables: Probability of Distress for South Asian Banks and Adjustments to Distress, 2009-18 -- Annex 2C. Regression Tables for South Asian Scheduled Commercial Banks: Country Results, 2009-18 -- Notes -- References -- 3 South Asia's State-Owned Enterprises: Surprise Liabilities versus Positive Externalities -- The Importance of Paying More Attention to the Hidden Liabilities of SOEs in South Asia -- Describing the Opaque and Complex SOE Sector in South Asia Using Data -- Analyzing the Roots and Extent of Hidden Liabilities in South Asian SOEs -- What Drives the Contingent Liabilities from SOEs? -- The SOE Sector Has a Role to Play in South Asia, Such as through Its Long-Term Investment in R& -- D and Positive Spillovers on Private Firms -- Only a Combination of Internal and External Policy Reforms Can Help Better Manage Contingent Liabilities from SOEs in South Asia -- Annex 3A. Sources of Data about South Asian SOEs -- Annex 3B. Summary Statistics and Estimations for Indian Enterprises -- Annex 3C. Productivity Estimation -- Notes -- References -- 4 Subnational Governments in South Asia: Balancing the Fiscal Risks of Government Decentralization with the Returns -- The Promise and Risks of Fiscal Decentralization in South Asia -- The Unclear Extent of Subnational Fiscal Liabilities and Rising Fiscal Risks in South Asia -- Fiscal Responsibility Legislation and Subnational Fiscal Risks -- Subnational Debt, Data, and Transparency: Lessons from Pakistan -- Estimating Contingent Liability Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Mitigating Factors Using Data for India -- Results: Examining the Occurrence of Contingent Liability Shocks -- Improved Transparency and Fiscal Rules, the Disciplining Role of Markets, and Better Intergovernmental Frameworks Are Needed to Achieve Better Subnational Fiscal Outcomes in South Asia -- Annex 4A. Methodology. Annex 4B. The Kalman Filter -- Annex 4C. Regression Tables -- Notes -- References -- Boxes -- Box ES.1 Applying the Purpose, Incentives, Transparency, and Accountability (PITA) Recommendations -- Box 1.1 The Hidden Debt of National Highways in India -- Box 1.2 Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk Scenarios for Computing Losses to the Government from Contingent Liabilities of Public-Private Partnerships -- Box 2.1 Main Findings of the Overall Analysis -- Box 4.1 Recommendations for Improving Fiscal Reporting and Transparency in Pakistan -- Figures -- Figure O.1 Some South Asian Governments (India, Pakistan) Use State-Owned Commercial Banks, State-Owned Enterprises, and Public-Private Partnerships More Commonly Than the Global Benchmark While Others (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) Are Catching Up -- Figure O.2 Analytical Framework: Links from Distress to Adjustments to Impacts -- Figure O.3 Highlights of the Report's Findings on Distress, Adjustments, and Impacts -- Figure O.4 State-Owned Commercial Banks Adjust Differently from Private Banks in Times of Distress, 2009-18 -- Figure O.5 Annual Government Support for South Asian State-Owned Enterprises Could Account for More Than 2 Percent of GDP, on Average, Depending on the Country, 2015-17 -- Figure O.6 A Profound Macrofinancial Crisis Could Trigger Failures among Public-Private Partnerships That Would Cost South Asian Governments up to 4 Percent of Revenues -- Figure O.7 The Liabilities of Loss-Making State-Owned Enterprises in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka Have Been Huge, but More Than 80 Percent of Losses in Each Country Have Occurred in Only the Top 10 Loss-Makers -- Figure O.8 Local Investments in Indian States Fall Significantly with a Contingent Liability Shock, Keep Dropping the Year After, and Stay Well Below the Trend for Three Years. Figure O.9 Checks and Balances on Government Executives Help Prevent Distress of Public-Private Partnerships -- Figure 1.1 Active Portfolio of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure in South Asia, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.2 Sectoral Distribution of Public-Private Partnership Projects with Financial Closure in South Asia, by Country and Number of Cancellations, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.3 Number of National Highway Public-Private Partnership Projects in India, by Year of Financial Closure, 2001-18 -- Figure 1.4 Traditional versus Public-Private Partnership Procurement of Infrastructure in India, 2001-17 -- Figure 1.5 Distribution of the Percentage of Contract Period Elapsed, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.6 Distribution of Failures of Public-Private Partnerships over the Contract Period, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.7 Estimates of Survival and Cumulative Hazard for Public-Private Partnership Projects -- Figure 1.8 Factors That Predict the Likelihood of Public-Private Partnership Distress -- Figure 1.9 Distribution of Predicted Probabilities of Distress for Public-Private Partnerships in South Asia, from 2020 to the End of Contractual Period -- Figure 1.10 Composition of Public-Private Partnership Financing for Active Projects in South Asia, by Country, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.11 Estimated Total Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of GDP, 2020-24 -- Figure 1.12 Estimated Total Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of Government Revenues for a Single Year -- Figure 1.13 Estimated Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia over Different Periods as a Percentage of Expected Government Revenues, 2020-24. Figure 1.14 Estimated Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio Assuming Profound Macrofinancial Shocks, as a Percentage of Government Revenues, 2020-24 -- Figure 1.15 Number of Indian Highway Projects Canceled versus Not Canceled, by Contract Type and Financial Closure Year, 2010-14 -- Figure 1E.1 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Semi-parametric Methods -- Figure 1E.2 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Parametric Methods -- Figure 1E.3 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Flexible Parametric Methods -- Figure 2.1 South Asia: Share of State-Owned Commercial Bank Assets in Total Banking Assets, 2016 -- Figure 2.2 Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan: State-Owned Commercial Banks' Underperformance Relative to Domestic and Foreign Private Banks, 2009-18 Average -- Figure 2.3 India: Branch Networks and Total Credit, 2018 -- Figure 2.4 India: Selected Funding and Credit Indicators, 2018 -- Figure 2.5 India: Selected Business Model, Performance, and Soundness Indicators, 2018 -- Figure 2.6 South Asia's Four Main Economies: Business Models and Strategies of State-Owned Commercial Banks versus Privately Owned Commercial Banks, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.7 India: Characteristics of the Average Client Firms of Scheduled Commercial Banks, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.8 India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka: Interest Coverage Ratio by Bank Type, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.9 Differences in How State-Owned Commercial Banks and Domestically Owned Private Banks Adjust in Times of Distress -- Figure 2.10 Capital Injections by the Indian Government to Distressed State-Owned Commercial Banks, FY2009-FY2020 -- Figure 3.1 Total Number and Average Revenue of South Asian State-Owned Enterprises, 2017 -- Figure 3.2 State-Owned Enterprise Revenue by Sector in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, 2016-17. Figure 3.3 Net Profit/Loss of South Asian State-Owned Enterprises, 2014-17. |
author_facet |
Melecky, Martin. |
author_variant |
m m mm |
author_sort |
Melecky, Martin. |
title |
Hidden Debt : Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia. |
title_sub |
Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia. |
title_full |
Hidden Debt : Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia. |
title_fullStr |
Hidden Debt : Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hidden Debt : Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia. |
title_auth |
Hidden Debt : Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia. |
title_new |
Hidden Debt : |
title_sort |
hidden debt : solutions to avert the next financial crisis in south asia. |
series |
South Asia Development Matters Series |
series2 |
South Asia Development Matters Series |
publisher |
World Bank Publications, |
publishDate |
2021 |
physical |
1 online resource (197 pages) |
edition |
1st ed. |
contents |
Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Executive Summary -- Spotlight ES.1 -- Abbreviations -- Overview -- Analytical Framework -- Empirical Findings -- Policy Recommendations -- Notes -- References -- 1 Public-Private Partnerships in South Asia: Managing the Fiscal Risks from Hidden Liabilities While Delivering Efficiency Gains -- The Need to Carefully Manage the Fiscal and Economic Risks of PPPs -- Balancing the Efficiency Gains from PPPs against Their Risks and Liabilities -- Booming Infrastructure PPPs, Their Country and Sector Distribution, and Signs of Distress in South Asia -- Fiscal Risks from Contingent Liabilities Due to Early Termination of PPPs -- Features of Contract Design That Matter: Exploring the Link between PPP Contract Design and Early Terminations of Highway PPPs in India -- Improving Government Capacity, Due Diligence, and Contract Design to Better Manage the Fiscal Risks of the Growing PPP Programs in South Asia -- Annex 1A. Methodology to Determine the Value at Risk of a Public-Private Partnership -- Annex 1B. Definitions of Variables -- Annex 1C. Distribution of South Asian Public-Private Partnership Projects by Sector -- Annex 1D. Imputing the Missing Values for Predictions -- Annex 1E. Model Selection -- Annex 1F. Estimation Tables -- Notes -- References -- 2 State-Owned Banks versus Private Banks in South Asia: Agency Tensions, Susceptibility to Distress, and the Fiscal and Economic Costs of Distress -- The Upsides and Downsides of State-Owned Commercial Banks -- The Omnipresence of State-Owned Commercial Banks in South Asia -- Bank Business Models by Ownership Type: The Example of India -- Understanding Bank Distress and Its Main Factors -- Analyzing the Effect of Firms' Banking with SOCBs Compared with Private Banks -- Policy Recommendations -- Annex 2A. Methodology for Determining Bank Distress. Annex 2B. Regression Tables: Probability of Distress for South Asian Banks and Adjustments to Distress, 2009-18 -- Annex 2C. Regression Tables for South Asian Scheduled Commercial Banks: Country Results, 2009-18 -- Notes -- References -- 3 South Asia's State-Owned Enterprises: Surprise Liabilities versus Positive Externalities -- The Importance of Paying More Attention to the Hidden Liabilities of SOEs in South Asia -- Describing the Opaque and Complex SOE Sector in South Asia Using Data -- Analyzing the Roots and Extent of Hidden Liabilities in South Asian SOEs -- What Drives the Contingent Liabilities from SOEs? -- The SOE Sector Has a Role to Play in South Asia, Such as through Its Long-Term Investment in R& -- D and Positive Spillovers on Private Firms -- Only a Combination of Internal and External Policy Reforms Can Help Better Manage Contingent Liabilities from SOEs in South Asia -- Annex 3A. Sources of Data about South Asian SOEs -- Annex 3B. Summary Statistics and Estimations for Indian Enterprises -- Annex 3C. Productivity Estimation -- Notes -- References -- 4 Subnational Governments in South Asia: Balancing the Fiscal Risks of Government Decentralization with the Returns -- The Promise and Risks of Fiscal Decentralization in South Asia -- The Unclear Extent of Subnational Fiscal Liabilities and Rising Fiscal Risks in South Asia -- Fiscal Responsibility Legislation and Subnational Fiscal Risks -- Subnational Debt, Data, and Transparency: Lessons from Pakistan -- Estimating Contingent Liability Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Mitigating Factors Using Data for India -- Results: Examining the Occurrence of Contingent Liability Shocks -- Improved Transparency and Fiscal Rules, the Disciplining Role of Markets, and Better Intergovernmental Frameworks Are Needed to Achieve Better Subnational Fiscal Outcomes in South Asia -- Annex 4A. Methodology. Annex 4B. The Kalman Filter -- Annex 4C. Regression Tables -- Notes -- References -- Boxes -- Box ES.1 Applying the Purpose, Incentives, Transparency, and Accountability (PITA) Recommendations -- Box 1.1 The Hidden Debt of National Highways in India -- Box 1.2 Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk Scenarios for Computing Losses to the Government from Contingent Liabilities of Public-Private Partnerships -- Box 2.1 Main Findings of the Overall Analysis -- Box 4.1 Recommendations for Improving Fiscal Reporting and Transparency in Pakistan -- Figures -- Figure O.1 Some South Asian Governments (India, Pakistan) Use State-Owned Commercial Banks, State-Owned Enterprises, and Public-Private Partnerships More Commonly Than the Global Benchmark While Others (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) Are Catching Up -- Figure O.2 Analytical Framework: Links from Distress to Adjustments to Impacts -- Figure O.3 Highlights of the Report's Findings on Distress, Adjustments, and Impacts -- Figure O.4 State-Owned Commercial Banks Adjust Differently from Private Banks in Times of Distress, 2009-18 -- Figure O.5 Annual Government Support for South Asian State-Owned Enterprises Could Account for More Than 2 Percent of GDP, on Average, Depending on the Country, 2015-17 -- Figure O.6 A Profound Macrofinancial Crisis Could Trigger Failures among Public-Private Partnerships That Would Cost South Asian Governments up to 4 Percent of Revenues -- Figure O.7 The Liabilities of Loss-Making State-Owned Enterprises in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka Have Been Huge, but More Than 80 Percent of Losses in Each Country Have Occurred in Only the Top 10 Loss-Makers -- Figure O.8 Local Investments in Indian States Fall Significantly with a Contingent Liability Shock, Keep Dropping the Year After, and Stay Well Below the Trend for Three Years. Figure O.9 Checks and Balances on Government Executives Help Prevent Distress of Public-Private Partnerships -- Figure 1.1 Active Portfolio of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure in South Asia, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.2 Sectoral Distribution of Public-Private Partnership Projects with Financial Closure in South Asia, by Country and Number of Cancellations, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.3 Number of National Highway Public-Private Partnership Projects in India, by Year of Financial Closure, 2001-18 -- Figure 1.4 Traditional versus Public-Private Partnership Procurement of Infrastructure in India, 2001-17 -- Figure 1.5 Distribution of the Percentage of Contract Period Elapsed, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.6 Distribution of Failures of Public-Private Partnerships over the Contract Period, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.7 Estimates of Survival and Cumulative Hazard for Public-Private Partnership Projects -- Figure 1.8 Factors That Predict the Likelihood of Public-Private Partnership Distress -- Figure 1.9 Distribution of Predicted Probabilities of Distress for Public-Private Partnerships in South Asia, from 2020 to the End of Contractual Period -- Figure 1.10 Composition of Public-Private Partnership Financing for Active Projects in South Asia, by Country, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.11 Estimated Total Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of GDP, 2020-24 -- Figure 1.12 Estimated Total Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of Government Revenues for a Single Year -- Figure 1.13 Estimated Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia over Different Periods as a Percentage of Expected Government Revenues, 2020-24. Figure 1.14 Estimated Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio Assuming Profound Macrofinancial Shocks, as a Percentage of Government Revenues, 2020-24 -- Figure 1.15 Number of Indian Highway Projects Canceled versus Not Canceled, by Contract Type and Financial Closure Year, 2010-14 -- Figure 1E.1 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Semi-parametric Methods -- Figure 1E.2 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Parametric Methods -- Figure 1E.3 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Flexible Parametric Methods -- Figure 2.1 South Asia: Share of State-Owned Commercial Bank Assets in Total Banking Assets, 2016 -- Figure 2.2 Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan: State-Owned Commercial Banks' Underperformance Relative to Domestic and Foreign Private Banks, 2009-18 Average -- Figure 2.3 India: Branch Networks and Total Credit, 2018 -- Figure 2.4 India: Selected Funding and Credit Indicators, 2018 -- Figure 2.5 India: Selected Business Model, Performance, and Soundness Indicators, 2018 -- Figure 2.6 South Asia's Four Main Economies: Business Models and Strategies of State-Owned Commercial Banks versus Privately Owned Commercial Banks, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.7 India: Characteristics of the Average Client Firms of Scheduled Commercial Banks, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.8 India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka: Interest Coverage Ratio by Bank Type, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.9 Differences in How State-Owned Commercial Banks and Domestically Owned Private Banks Adjust in Times of Distress -- Figure 2.10 Capital Injections by the Indian Government to Distressed State-Owned Commercial Banks, FY2009-FY2020 -- Figure 3.1 Total Number and Average Revenue of South Asian State-Owned Enterprises, 2017 -- Figure 3.2 State-Owned Enterprise Revenue by Sector in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, 2016-17. Figure 3.3 Net Profit/Loss of South Asian State-Owned Enterprises, 2014-17. |
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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>11372nam a22004933i 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">5006680954</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">MiAaPQ</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20240229073842.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="006">m o d | </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr cnu||||||||</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">240229s2021 xx o ||||0 eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9781464816680</subfield><subfield code="q">(electronic bk.)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(MiAaPQ)5006680954</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(Au-PeEL)EBL6680954</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1261365210</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">MiAaPQ</subfield><subfield code="b">eng</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield><subfield code="e">pn</subfield><subfield code="c">MiAaPQ</subfield><subfield code="d">MiAaPQ</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">HB3722</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">332.095</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Melecky, Martin.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Hidden Debt :</subfield><subfield code="b">Solutions to Avert the Next Financial Crisis in South Asia.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="250" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1st ed.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Washington, D. C. :</subfield><subfield code="b">World Bank Publications,</subfield><subfield code="c">2021.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="c">©2021.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 online resource (197 pages)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">computer</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">online resource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">South Asia Development Matters Series</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Executive Summary -- Spotlight ES.1 -- Abbreviations -- Overview -- Analytical Framework -- Empirical Findings -- Policy Recommendations -- Notes -- References -- 1 Public-Private Partnerships in South Asia: Managing the Fiscal Risks from Hidden Liabilities While Delivering Efficiency Gains -- The Need to Carefully Manage the Fiscal and Economic Risks of PPPs -- Balancing the Efficiency Gains from PPPs against Their Risks and Liabilities -- Booming Infrastructure PPPs, Their Country and Sector Distribution, and Signs of Distress in South Asia -- Fiscal Risks from Contingent Liabilities Due to Early Termination of PPPs -- Features of Contract Design That Matter: Exploring the Link between PPP Contract Design and Early Terminations of Highway PPPs in India -- Improving Government Capacity, Due Diligence, and Contract Design to Better Manage the Fiscal Risks of the Growing PPP Programs in South Asia -- Annex 1A. Methodology to Determine the Value at Risk of a Public-Private Partnership -- Annex 1B. Definitions of Variables -- Annex 1C. Distribution of South Asian Public-Private Partnership Projects by Sector -- Annex 1D. Imputing the Missing Values for Predictions -- Annex 1E. Model Selection -- Annex 1F. Estimation Tables -- Notes -- References -- 2 State-Owned Banks versus Private Banks in South Asia: Agency Tensions, Susceptibility to Distress, and the Fiscal and Economic Costs of Distress -- The Upsides and Downsides of State-Owned Commercial Banks -- The Omnipresence of State-Owned Commercial Banks in South Asia -- Bank Business Models by Ownership Type: The Example of India -- Understanding Bank Distress and Its Main Factors -- Analyzing the Effect of Firms' Banking with SOCBs Compared with Private Banks -- Policy Recommendations -- Annex 2A. Methodology for Determining Bank Distress.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Annex 2B. Regression Tables: Probability of Distress for South Asian Banks and Adjustments to Distress, 2009-18 -- Annex 2C. Regression Tables for South Asian Scheduled Commercial Banks: Country Results, 2009-18 -- Notes -- References -- 3 South Asia's State-Owned Enterprises: Surprise Liabilities versus Positive Externalities -- The Importance of Paying More Attention to the Hidden Liabilities of SOEs in South Asia -- Describing the Opaque and Complex SOE Sector in South Asia Using Data -- Analyzing the Roots and Extent of Hidden Liabilities in South Asian SOEs -- What Drives the Contingent Liabilities from SOEs? -- The SOE Sector Has a Role to Play in South Asia, Such as through Its Long-Term Investment in R&amp -- D and Positive Spillovers on Private Firms -- Only a Combination of Internal and External Policy Reforms Can Help Better Manage Contingent Liabilities from SOEs in South Asia -- Annex 3A. Sources of Data about South Asian SOEs -- Annex 3B. Summary Statistics and Estimations for Indian Enterprises -- Annex 3C. Productivity Estimation -- Notes -- References -- 4 Subnational Governments in South Asia: Balancing the Fiscal Risks of Government Decentralization with the Returns -- The Promise and Risks of Fiscal Decentralization in South Asia -- The Unclear Extent of Subnational Fiscal Liabilities and Rising Fiscal Risks in South Asia -- Fiscal Responsibility Legislation and Subnational Fiscal Risks -- Subnational Debt, Data, and Transparency: Lessons from Pakistan -- Estimating Contingent Liability Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Mitigating Factors Using Data for India -- Results: Examining the Occurrence of Contingent Liability Shocks -- Improved Transparency and Fiscal Rules, the Disciplining Role of Markets, and Better Intergovernmental Frameworks Are Needed to Achieve Better Subnational Fiscal Outcomes in South Asia -- Annex 4A. Methodology.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Annex 4B. The Kalman Filter -- Annex 4C. Regression Tables -- Notes -- References -- Boxes -- Box ES.1 Applying the Purpose, Incentives, Transparency, and Accountability (PITA) Recommendations -- Box 1.1 The Hidden Debt of National Highways in India -- Box 1.2 Low-, Medium-, and High-Risk Scenarios for Computing Losses to the Government from Contingent Liabilities of Public-Private Partnerships -- Box 2.1 Main Findings of the Overall Analysis -- Box 4.1 Recommendations for Improving Fiscal Reporting and Transparency in Pakistan -- Figures -- Figure O.1 Some South Asian Governments (India, Pakistan) Use State-Owned Commercial Banks, State-Owned Enterprises, and Public-Private Partnerships More Commonly Than the Global Benchmark While Others (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) Are Catching Up -- Figure O.2 Analytical Framework: Links from Distress to Adjustments to Impacts -- Figure O.3 Highlights of the Report's Findings on Distress, Adjustments, and Impacts -- Figure O.4 State-Owned Commercial Banks Adjust Differently from Private Banks in Times of Distress, 2009-18 -- Figure O.5 Annual Government Support for South Asian State-Owned Enterprises Could Account for More Than 2 Percent of GDP, on Average, Depending on the Country, 2015-17 -- Figure O.6 A Profound Macrofinancial Crisis Could Trigger Failures among Public-Private Partnerships That Would Cost South Asian Governments up to 4 Percent of Revenues -- Figure O.7 The Liabilities of Loss-Making State-Owned Enterprises in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka Have Been Huge, but More Than 80 Percent of Losses in Each Country Have Occurred in Only the Top 10 Loss-Makers -- Figure O.8 Local Investments in Indian States Fall Significantly with a Contingent Liability Shock, Keep Dropping the Year After, and Stay Well Below the Trend for Three Years.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Figure O.9 Checks and Balances on Government Executives Help Prevent Distress of Public-Private Partnerships -- Figure 1.1 Active Portfolio of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure in South Asia, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.2 Sectoral Distribution of Public-Private Partnership Projects with Financial Closure in South Asia, by Country and Number of Cancellations, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.3 Number of National Highway Public-Private Partnership Projects in India, by Year of Financial Closure, 2001-18 -- Figure 1.4 Traditional versus Public-Private Partnership Procurement of Infrastructure in India, 2001-17 -- Figure 1.5 Distribution of the Percentage of Contract Period Elapsed, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.6 Distribution of Failures of Public-Private Partnerships over the Contract Period, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.7 Estimates of Survival and Cumulative Hazard for Public-Private Partnership Projects -- Figure 1.8 Factors That Predict the Likelihood of Public-Private Partnership Distress -- Figure 1.9 Distribution of Predicted Probabilities of Distress for Public-Private Partnerships in South Asia, from 2020 to the End of Contractual Period -- Figure 1.10 Composition of Public-Private Partnership Financing for Active Projects in South Asia, by Country, 1990-2018 -- Figure 1.11 Estimated Total Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of GDP, 2020-24 -- Figure 1.12 Estimated Total Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of Government Revenues for a Single Year -- Figure 1.13 Estimated Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio in South Asia over Different Periods as a Percentage of Expected Government Revenues, 2020-24.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Figure 1.14 Estimated Fiscal Costs from Early Termination of the Public-Private Partnership Portfolio Assuming Profound Macrofinancial Shocks, as a Percentage of Government Revenues, 2020-24 -- Figure 1.15 Number of Indian Highway Projects Canceled versus Not Canceled, by Contract Type and Financial Closure Year, 2010-14 -- Figure 1E.1 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Semi-parametric Methods -- Figure 1E.2 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Parametric Methods -- Figure 1E.3 Baseline Hazard Profile Estimates Using Flexible Parametric Methods -- Figure 2.1 South Asia: Share of State-Owned Commercial Bank Assets in Total Banking Assets, 2016 -- Figure 2.2 Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan: State-Owned Commercial Banks' Underperformance Relative to Domestic and Foreign Private Banks, 2009-18 Average -- Figure 2.3 India: Branch Networks and Total Credit, 2018 -- Figure 2.4 India: Selected Funding and Credit Indicators, 2018 -- Figure 2.5 India: Selected Business Model, Performance, and Soundness Indicators, 2018 -- Figure 2.6 South Asia's Four Main Economies: Business Models and Strategies of State-Owned Commercial Banks versus Privately Owned Commercial Banks, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.7 India: Characteristics of the Average Client Firms of Scheduled Commercial Banks, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.8 India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka: Interest Coverage Ratio by Bank Type, 2009-18 -- Figure 2.9 Differences in How State-Owned Commercial Banks and Domestically Owned Private Banks Adjust in Times of Distress -- Figure 2.10 Capital Injections by the Indian Government to Distressed State-Owned Commercial Banks, FY2009-FY2020 -- Figure 3.1 Total Number and Average Revenue of South Asian State-Owned Enterprises, 2017 -- Figure 3.2 State-Owned Enterprise Revenue by Sector in India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, 2016-17.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Figure 3.3 Net Profit/Loss of South Asian State-Owned Enterprises, 2014-17.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="588" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="590" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries. </subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Risk.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">South Asia.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Government business enterprises--Finance.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="655" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Electronic books.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Print version:</subfield><subfield code="a">Melecky, Martin</subfield><subfield code="t">Hidden Debt</subfield><subfield code="d">Washington, D. 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