Saving and Investment in the Twenty-First Century : : The Great Divergence.
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Place / Publishing House: | Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2021. {copy}2021. |
Year of Publication: | 2021 |
Edition: | 1st ed. |
Language: | English |
Online Access: | |
Physical Description: | 1 online resource (351 pages) |
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Table of Contents:
- Intro
- Preface
- Contents
- About the Authors
- Symbols
- List of Figures
- List of Tables
- 1 Introduction: Private Wealth and Public Debt
- 1.1 Overture
- 1.2 The Welfare State and the Concept of Private Wealth
- 1.3 The Ambiguous Image of Public Debt
- 1.4 The Secular Growth of Prosperity
- 1.5 The Limits of Complexity: The Capital Coefficient Has Remained Constant for the Last One Hundred Years
- 1.6 Digitalization
- 1.7 The Consequence: Low Interest Rates, Today and Tomorrow
- 1.8 "Secular Stagnation"
- 1.9 "Dynamic Inefficiency" and the Concern for Future Generations
- 1.10 A Brief Overview of the Following Chapters
- References
- Theory and Empirical Evidence
- 2 The Natural Rate of Interest and the Optimal Rate of Interest in the Steady State
- Abstract
- 2.1 Definition of the Natural Rate of Interest
- 2.2 Profit, Risk, Interest and Overall Economic Returns
- 2.3 Capital-Theoretical Foundations
- 2.4 The Generalized Golden Rule of Accumulation
- 2.5 The Public Debt Ratio and the Period of Production
- 2.6 Private Wealth T + D
- 2.7 The Golden Rule for the Lifetime Utility of the Representative Household
- 2.8 At the Optimum, the Overall Economic Period of Production = The Overall Economic Waiting Period
- 2.9 Deviations from the Steady State: The Interest Rate as Price Signal and the Risk Premium
- 2.10 What if the Interest Rate Represents a Biased Price Signal?
- 2.11 Calibrating Welfare Losses for {{\varvec r}}\ne {{\varvec g}}: An Example
- 2.12 Conclusion
- References
- 3 Wealth and Desired Wealth
- Abstract
- 3.1 The Concept of Desired Wealth
- 3.2 Demographics: The Example of the Savings Triangle
- 3.3 The Savings Triangle Closely Fits the Saving Rate of the Members of the German Social Security System
- 3.4 The Law of Increasing Relative Desired Wealth.
- 3.5 Demographics: The Third Stage of Life Is Increasing Around the World
- 3.6 The Inheritance of Wealth
- 3.7 With Increasing Prosperity, the Future-Directedness of Human Action Increases
- 3.8 Overcoming Poverty Leads to Increasing Future-Directedness
- 3.9 The Separation of Saving and Investment Results in Greater Provision for the Future
- 3.10 The Measure Z of Relative Effective Provision for the Future
- 3.11 The Assumption of a Closed Economy for the OECD Plus China Economic Area
- 3.12 The Gist
- References
- 4 Real Capital
- Abstract
- 4.1 Real Capital: Theoretical Foundations
- 4.1.1 The Point of Differentiating Between Real Capital and Land
- 4.1.2 The Capital-Output Ratio Does Not Exhibit Any Trend
- 4.1.3 Prefabricated Thought 1: Marx
- 4.1.4 Prefabricated Thought 2: Böhm-Bawerk
- 4.1.5 Prefabricated Thought 3: The CES Production Function
- 4.1.6 The Coefficient of Intertemporal Substitution
- 4.1.7 An Application of the Coefficient of Intertemporal Substitution
- 4.1.8 A Model with Constant Intertemporal Substitution
- 4.1.9 And What, then, of the "Greater Productivity of More Roundabout Production"?
- 4.1.10 Roundaboutness of Production, Division of Labor and Complexity
- 4.1.11 Real Interest Rates of Zero as Price Signal for the Negative Marginal Productivity of More Roundabout Production
- 4.2 Determining the Value of Private Real Capital in the OECD Plus China Region
- 4.2.1 Definitions and Concepts
- 4.2.2 Data
- 4.2.3 Determining the Value of Real Capital
- 4.2.4 The Value of Private Real Capital
- References
- 5 Land
- Abstract
- 5.1 Land: Theoretical Foundations
- 5.1.1 The Formal Model
- 5.1.2 The Golden Rule of Accumulation Is Preserved
- 5.1.3 Is the Steady-State Interest Rate Always Greater Than the Growth Rate?
- 5.1.4 Ponzi Scheme
- 5.1.5 Financial Risks of Land Ownership 1: Agriculture.
- 5.1.6 Financial Risks of Land Ownership 2: Urban Land
- 5.1.7 A Dual Model of Land Use
- 5.1.8 Macrorisks of Urban Land Ownership 1: Taxation or Increasing Supply
- 5.1.9 Macrorisks of Urban Land Ownership 2: Restrictions on the Freedom of Contract-In Particular, Rent Control
- 5.1.10 Rent Control as Shared Land Rent
- 5.1.11 The Role of Interest Rate Risk in the Capitalization of Land Rents
- 5.1.12 Distributive Aspects of Land Rent
- 5.1.13 The Real Estate Inheritance Rate
- 5.2 Determining the Value of Privately-Owned Land in the OECD Plus China Region
- 5.2.1 Concepts and Data Sources
- 5.2.2 Land Values and Land Use in Germany
- 5.2.3 Land as a Component of Real Assets: A Franco-German Comparison
- 5.2.4 The Value of Privately Owned Land
- References
- 6 Public Debt
- Abstract
- 6.1 Public Debt: Theoretical Foundations
- 6.1.1 Introduction
- 6.1.2 Explicit Net Public Debt
- 6.1.3 Implicit Public Debt 1: Social Security Retirement Benefits
- 6.1.4 Implicit Public Debt 2: Public Health Insurance
- 6.1.5 Implicit Public Debt 3: An Exotic Example in the Form of Germany's Renewable Energy Act
- 6.1.6 Public Debt When the Real Interest Rate Is Zero
- 6.1.7 The Discounting Discrepancy Problem
- 6.1.8 The Relative Size of the Public Sector
- 6.1.9 Refining the Concept of the Relative Size of the Public Sector
- 6.1.10 Shiller's "TRILLS" Proposal
- 6.1.11 TRILLs When the Interest Rate Is a Biased Price Signal
- 6.1.12 Central Bank Money
- 6.2 Determining the Value of Explicit and Implicit Public Debt in the OECD Plus China Region
- 6.2.1 Explicit Public Debt
- 6.2.2 Implicit Public Debt
- 6.2.2.1 Public Retirement Schemes
- 6.2.2.2 Public Health Insurance
- 6.2.2.3 Implicit Public Debt from Health Insurance in the OECD Plus China Region.
- 6.2.3 Explicit and Implicit Public Debt in the OECD Plus China Region: Summary of Estimates
- References
- 7 Investment, Saving and Stagnation from a Keynesian Perspective
- Abstract
- 7.1 The Disparity Between Capital Supply and Capital Demand and the Divergence Between Saving and Investment
- 7.2 Public and Private Saving and Public and Private Investment in a Macroeconomic Context
- 7.3 The Adjustment Mechanism in Disequilibrium
- 7.4 John Maynard Keynes as Spiritual Father of the Modern Theory of Stagnation
- 7.5 Alvin Hansen and Secular Stagnation
- 7.6 Larry Summers' Rediscovery of Alvin Hansen's Stagnation Thesis
- 7.7 Keynes and the New Capital-Theoretical Approach
- References
- 8 Concluding Remarks on the Negative Natural Rate of Interest
- Abstract
- 8.1 The Great Divergence
- 8.2 Implicit Public Debt
- 8.3 The Natural Rate of Interest Is Negative
- 8.4 The Distribution of Wealth
- 8.5 Private Wealth at a Real Interest Rate of Zero
- 8.6 The Shift in Optimal Public Debt After COVID-19
- 8.7 Real Assets in Comparison with an Estimate by Jordà et al. (2019)
- 8.8 Total Private Wealth at a Real Interest Rate of Zero
- 8.9 Recent "Secular Stagnation" Literature: An Example
- 8.10 Sensitivity Analysis on the Negative Natural Rate of Interest
- 8.11 A Summary of the Results of Our Empirical Estimates
- References
- Economic Policy
- 9 Monetary Stability and the Stability of the Open Society
- Abstract
- 9.1 Authoritarian Tendencies, Complexity and Simplicity
- 9.2 Irenicism: The Symbiosis of Democracy and Market Economy I
- 9.3 Irenicism: The Symbiosis of Democracy and Market Economy II-The Welfare State
- 9.4 The Intertemporal Aspect of Social Insurance
- 9.5 Subsidiarity and Stable Money: A "Stability Pact"
- 9.6 A Culture of Personal Responsibility and Future-Directedness
- 9.7 Inflation or Public Debt?.
- 9.8 The Aspect of Freedom
- References
- 10 A New Era of International Economic Policy
- Abstract
- 10.1 Free Trade in Modernity
- 10.2 Free Trade or Import Barriers as Nash Equilibrium
- 10.3 "Friedman World" or "Keynes World"
- 10.4 The Natural Rate of Interest, the Friedman World and the Keynes World
- 10.5 Unilateral Action and the Rules of Free Trade
- 10.6 The New Protectionism
- 10.7 A Multilateral Balanced Account Agreement
- References
- 11 Europe, the Euro and German Demographic Renewal
- Abstract
- 11.1 The Single Market
- 11.2 Europe's Global Political Environment: International Demand Power
- 11.3 The Euro and the Single Market
- 11.4 The Euro as Pillar of the Single Market
- 11.5 The Problem of National Current Account Balances
- 11.6 Investment Promotion as the Solution?
- 11.7 A European Balanced Account Agreement, but "No Bailouts"
- 11.8 The Result for Germany: Demographic Renewal
- 11.9 A "Just" Distribution of Employment Opportunities
- References
- 12 The Global Economy After the End of Capital Scarcity: A Utopian Proposal
- Abstract
- 12.1 From Fairy Tale to Political Economy in Ten Years
- 12.2 The End of Capital Scarcity is Not the End of Time Scarcity
- 12.3 The Chinese Economic Miracle
- 12.4 Friedrich List and the Chinese Economic Miracle
- 12.5 A Two-Country Thought Experiment
- 12.6 The Utopia of a Demand-Oriented Growth Strategy for Developing Countries
- 12.7 A Utopian Look into the Future
- 12.8 The Gist of the Argument
- References
- 13 Concluding Remarks on Economic Policy
- Abstract
- 13.1 Summary Part 1: Economic Policy in Germany, Europe and the World
- 13.2 Summary Part 2: Stability and Utopia
- 13.3 Fiscal Policy as Steering Instrument: The Appropriate Real Interest Rate
- 13.4 Fiscal Policy as Steering Instrument: The National Level.
- 13.5 A Replacement for the Debt Brake.