Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy.

• Author: Kalkuhl, Matthias.
• TeilnehmendeR: von Braun, Joachim.; Torero, Maximo.
• Place / Publishing House: Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2016.; Ã2016.
• Year of Publication: 2016
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (620 pages)

Table of Contents

Intro -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Part I Introduction -- 1 Volatile and Extreme Food Prices, Food Security, and Policy: An Overview -- 1.1 The Relevance of Food Price Volatility -- 1.2 Understanding the Linkages Between Food Security, Price Volatility, and Extreme Events -- 1.2.1 The Concept of Food Security -- 1.2.2 Food Price Volatility -- 1.2.3 Extreme Events -- 1.3 Conceptual Framework of Volatility, Food Security Impacts, and Policy Responses -- 1.4 Contribution and Contents of the Book -- 1.5 Implications for Policymaking -- 1.5.1 Policies to Prevent and Reduce Excessive Price Volatility -- 1.5.1.1 Agricultural Markets: Information, Transparency, and Regulation -- 1.5.1.2 Stocks, Trade, and Regional Cooperation -- 1.5.1.3 Biofuel Policies, Energy Prices, Climate Change, and Technological Change -- 1.5.2 Social Protection and Nutrition Policies -- 1.5.3 New International Institutional Arrangements -- 1.6 Implications for Future Research -- References -- Part II Food Price Volatility at International Food Commodity Markets -- 2 Volatile Volatility: Conceptual and Measurement Issues Related to Price Trends and Volatility -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Price Levels and Price Variability -- 2.3 Different Measures and Concepts -- 2.3.1 Prices in Real or Nominal Terms -- 2.3.2 World Prices: In What Currency? -- 2.3.3 Domestic Prices and World Prices -- 2.3.4 Time Horizons -- 2.3.5 The Selection of Food Indices and Food Prices -- 2.3.6 Trends and Volatility: Different Approaches -- 2.3.7 Trends and cycles -- 2.3.8 Shorter-term Variations -- 2.3.9 Expected and Historical Volatility -- 2.3.10 Scaling the Shocks -- 2.4 Conclusions -- References -- 3 Drivers and Triggers of International Food Price Spikes and Volatility -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Conceptual Framework -- 3.3 Estimation Methods -- 3.4 Data -- 3.5 Results and Discussion.

3.5.1 Determinants of Food Price Spikes -- 3.5.2 Food Price Volatility -- 3.5.3 Food Price Trigger -- 3.6 Conclusion -- References -- 4 The Effects of Southern Hemisphere Crop Production on Trade, Stocks, and Price Integration -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 The Model -- 4.3 Numerical Solution Strategy -- 4.4 Model Simulations -- 4.5 Impact of Shifting Production on Trade -- 4.6 Effects of Shifts in Production on Regional Stocks -- 4.7 Effects of Shifts in Production on Soybean Price Integration -- 4.8 Carrying Costs Among Northern and Southern Exporters -- 4.9 Effects of Production Shifts on Price Variability -- 4.10 Conclusions -- References -- 5 Food Price Changes, Price Insulation, and Their Impacts on Global and Domestic Poverty -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Effects of Food Price Changes on Poverty -- 5.2.1 Short-Run Effects -- 5.2.2 Longer-Run Effects -- 5.3 Policy Responses -- 5.4 Recent Developments in Poverty Reduction -- 5.5 Conclusions -- References -- 6 Alternative Mechanisms to Reduce Food Price Volatility and Price Spikes: Policy Responses at the Global Level -- 6.1 Background -- 6.2 Review of Policies Proposed/Implemented to Reduce Price Volatility Before 2007 -- 6.3 Review of Policies Proposed as a Result of the 2007-2008 and 2010 Food Price Crises -- 6.3.1 Information -- 6.3.2 Trade Facilitation -- 6.3.3 Reserves and Stocks -- 6.3.4 Financial Instruments -- 6.3.5 Regulatory Proposals -- 6.4 Conclusion -- References -- 7 Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soybeans -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Related Literature -- 7.3 Conceptual Framework -- 7.4 Data -- 7.5 Econometric Model -- 7.6 Results -- 7.6.1 Econometric Results -- 7.6.1.1 Robustness Checks -- 7.6.2 Simulation Results -- 7.7 Conclusions -- A.1 Appendix -- References.

8 Food Crisis and Export Taxation: Revisiting the Adverse Effects of Noncooperative Aspect of Trade Policies -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Why Do Countries Implement Export Restrictions? -- 8.3 To What Extent Does Export Taxation Amplify Food Price Volatility? -- 8.4 Can Export Restrictions Be Disciplined in the WTO Framework? -- 8.5 Concluding Remarks: Looking for a Solution -- References -- Part III Commodity and Financial Market Linkages -- 9 Directional Volatility Spillovers Between Agricultural, Crude Oil, Real Estate, and Other Financial Markets -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Previous Empirical Results on Market Linkages -- 9.2.1 Agricultural-Energy Market Linkages -- 9.2.2 (Agricultural) Commodity-Financial Market Linkages -- 9.3 Description of the Methodology and Data -- 9.3.1 Data -- 9.3.2 Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decompositions -- 9.3.3 Volatility Spillover Indices -- 9.4 Empirical Results -- 9.4.1 Rolling VAR Estimation and Spillover Index Calculation -- 9.4.2 Discussion of Results -- 9.4.2.1 Agricultural: Energy Linkages -- 9.4.2.2 Commodity: Financial Linkages -- 9.5 Conclusions -- References -- 10 A Roller Coaster Ride: An Empirical Investigation of the Main Drivers of Wheat Price -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Literature Review -- 10.3 Variables and Data -- 10.4 Empirical Evidence -- 10.4.1 Preliminary Unit Root Test -- 10.4.2 Johansen and Juselius Analysis -- 10.4.3 Empirical Results -- 10.4.4 Discussion of Results and implications -- 10.5 Conclusions -- Annex -- References -- 11 Relative Prices of Food and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities: Evidence for a Panel of Developing Economies -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Methodology -- 11.2.1 Relative Food Prices at Country Level -- 11.2.2 Conditional Global Volatility and Its Relation to Country Level Relative Food Prices -- 11.2.3 Beta Regression.

11.3 Data, Empirical Model, and Estimation -- 11.3.1 Data -- 11.3.2 Empirical Model and Estimation -- 11.3.3 Discussion -- 11.4 Conclusion -- Appendix -- Tables -- Data Sources -- References -- 12 How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Existing Work on Price Transmission -- 12.3 Theoretical Framework -- 12.4 Empirical Model -- 12.5 Data -- 12.6 Results -- 12.6.1 Transmission from the FAO Food Price Index -- 12.6.2 Vulnerability Mapping: How Many Poor People Are Affected by Global Price Changes? -- 12.6.3 Pass-Through and Equilibrium Effects -- 12.6.4 Robustness Checks -- 12.6.4.1 Significance Levels -- 12.6.4.2 CPI-Deflated Food Prices -- 12.6.4.3 OLS Versus Newey-West -- 12.7 Conclusions -- Appendix -- International Reference Prices and Price Indices -- Robustness Checks for Transmission to Grain Price Index -- Price Transmission from Individual Grain Prices -- References -- 13 Transmission of Food Price Volatility from International to Domestic Markets: Evidence from Africa, Latin America, and South Asia -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Previous Research on Transmission of Prices and Volatility -- 13.3 Methodology -- 13.4 Data -- 13.5 Results -- 13.6 Discussion -- 13.7 Conclusions -- Appendix -- References -- Part IV National and Regional Responses to Food Price Volatility -- 14 India's Food Security Policies in the Wake of Global Food Price Volatility -- Abbreviations -- 14.1 Backdrop -- 14.2 Global Rice and Wheat Markets and India -- 14.3 Rice and Wheat Policy: Trade and Domestic -- 14.3.1 Grain Policy: Trade -- 14.3.2 The 2007-2008 Global Price Hikes and India's Response -- 14.3.3 Impact of Global Prices on Domestic Prices -- 14.3.4 Indian Rice and Wheat Competitiveness -- 14.3.5 Grain Policy: Domestic.

14.3.6 National Food Security Mission 2007-2008 -- 14.3.7 National Food Security Act, 2013 -- 14.3.8 Second Green Revolution -- 14.4 Lessons Learned and the Way Forward -- Appendix -- References -- Data Sources -- 15 The Costs and Benefits of Regional Cooperation on Grain Reserves: The Case of ECOWAS -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 Food Reserves, Trade, and Benefits of Regional Cooperation -- 15.3 Assessment of the Costs and Benefits of Cooperation -- 15.4 Optimal Stocks and Stocking Rule -- 15.4.1 Emergency Reserve -- 15.4.2 Stabilization Reserve -- 15.5 Results -- 15.5.1 Supply Patterns in West Africa -- 15.5.2 Emergency Reserve -- 15.5.2.1 Emergency Reserve Without Intra-regional Trade -- 15.5.3 Emergency Reserve with Intra-Regional Trade -- 15.5.4 Stabilization Reserve -- 15.6 Conclusion -- Appendix -- References -- 16 Regional Trade and Volatility in Staple Food Markets in Africa -- 16.1 Introduction -- 16.2 Regional Potential for the Stabilization of Domestic Food Markets Through Trade -- 16.3 The Scope for Specialization and Regional Trade Expansion in Agriculture -- 16.4 The Outlook for Regional Cross-Border Trade and Market Volatility Under Alternative Scenarios -- 16.4.1 The Regional Trade Simulation Model -- 16.4.2 Intra-trade Simulation Results -- 16.4.3 Regional Market Volatility Under Alternative Policy Scenarios -- 16.5 Conclusions -- Appendix -- References -- 17 ASEAN Food Reserve and Trade: Review and Prospect -- 17.1 Introduction -- 17.2 ASEAN Food Market Structure -- 17.3 National Food Reserves in Southeast Asia -- 17.3.1 Benefits and Costs of National Reserves -- 17.4 Regional Food Reserve Cooperation -- 17.4.1 The Benefits and Costs of Regional Reserves -- 17.5 WTO Rules on Public Reserve -- 17.6 Conclusion and Policy Implication -- Appendix -- References.

18 When Do Prices Matter Most? Rice, Wheat, and Corn Supply Response in China.