Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin.

• Superior document: Regional Climate Studies
• Author: The BACC II Author Team, The Bacc.
• Place / Publishing House: Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2015.; Ã2015.
• Year of Publication: 2015
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Language: English
• Series: Regional Climate Studies
• Physical Description: 1 online resource (515 pages)

Table of Contents

• Intro
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• Contents
• The BACC II Author Team
• Abbreviations and Acronyms
• 1 Introduction and Summary
• Abstract
• 1.1 Overview
• 1.1.1 Background
• 1.1.2 Overall Summary
• 1.1.3 The BACC Process
• 1.1.4 Important Terminology
• 1.1.5 Annexes
• 1.2 Executive Summary
• 1.2.1 Long-term Climate Change: From the Holocene to the Little Ice Age
• 1.2.2 Recent Climate Change: The Past 200 Years
• 1.2.2.1 Recent Changes in the Atmosphere
• 1.2.2.2 Recent Changes in Hydrology and the Terrestrial Cryosphere
• 1.2.2.3 Recent Changes in Baltic Sea Hydrography
• 1.2.3 Future Climate Change
• 1.2.3.1 Models and Methodology
• 1.2.3.2 Projections of Future Climate Change
• 1.2.4 Environmental Impacts of Climate Change
• 1.2.4.1 Atmospheric Chemistry
• 1.2.4.2 Coastal Ecosystems, Birds, and Forests
• 1.2.4.3 Freshwater Biogeochemistry
• 1.2.4.4 Marine Biogeochemistry
• 1.2.4.5 Marine Ecosystems
• 1.2.4.6 Coastal Erosion and Coastline Changes
• 1.2.5 Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change
• 1.2.5.1 Forestry and Agriculture
• 1.2.5.2 Urban Complexes
• 1.2.6 Drivers of Regional Climate Change: Detecting Anthropogenic Change and Attributing Plausible Causes
• 1.2.6.1 Regional Evidence of Global Warming
• 1.2.6.2 Aerosols
• 1.2.6.3 Land Cover
• References
• Part ILong-term Climate Change
• 2 Climate Change During the Holocene (Past 12,000 Years)
• Abstract
• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Causes of Climate Variability During the Holocene
• 2.2.1 External Climate Forcing
• 2.2.1.1 Astronomical Conditions
• 2.2.1.2 Solar Activity
• 2.2.1.3 Volcanic Eruptions
• 2.2.1.4 Greenhouse Gases
• 2.2.2 Climate Modelling of the Holocene in the Baltic Sea Basin
• 2.3 Palaeoclimatic Reconstructions Over the Holocene
• 2.3.1 Sources of Palaeoclimatic Data
• 2.3.2 Methodology for Palaeoclimatic Reconstructions.
• 2.4 Climate Variability During the Holocene Relevant for the Baltic Sea Basin
• 2.4.1 Climate at the Boundary of the Younger Dryas/Holocene
• 2.4.2 Early Holocene Oscillations
• 2.4.3 The `8.2 ka Cold Event'
• 2.4.4 The Holocene Thermal Maximum
• 2.4.5 Late Holocene Cooling
• 2.5 Conclusion
• References
• 3 The Historical Time Frame (Past 1000 Years)
• Abstract
• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 Data Sources and Methodology
• 3.3 General Features of the Millennial Climate
• 3.4 The Medieval Warm Period (MWP 900--1350)
• 3.5 The Transitional Period (TP 1350--1550)
• 3.6 The Little Ice Age (LIA 1550--1850)
• 3.7 Conclusion
• References
• Part IIRecent Climate Change (Past 200 Years)
• 4 Recent Change---Atmosphere
• Abstract
• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Large-Scale Circulation Patterns
• 4.2.1 Circulation Changes in Recent Decades
• 4.2.2 Long-Term Circulation Changes
• 4.2.3 NAO and Blocking
• 4.2.4 Distant Controls of Circulation Changes
• 4.2.5 Controls of the NAO
• 4.2.6 Circulation Changes in Contrast to Global Warming
• 4.3 Surface Pressure and Winds
• 4.3.1 Wind Climate in Recent Decades
• 4.3.2 Long-Term Wind Climate
• 4.3.3 Long-Term Trends Versus Decadal Variability
• 4.3.4 Potential Inconsistencies in Long-Term Trends
• 4.4 Surface Air Temperature
• 4.4.1 Long-term Temperature Climate
• 4.4.2 Temperature Trends in Recent Decades
• 4.4.3 Daily Cycle and Seasonality
• 4.4.4 Temperature Extremes
• 4.5 Precipitation
• 4.5.1 Long-Term Precipitation Climate
• 4.5.2 Precipitation Climate in Recent Decades
• 4.5.3 Precipitation Extremes
• 4.6 Cloudiness and Solar Radiation
• 4.6.1 Cloudiness
• 4.6.2 Sunshine Duration and Solar Radiation
• 4.7 Conclusion
• References
• 5 Recent Change---River Run-off and Ice Cover
• Abstract
• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.1.1 General Drainage Characteristics of the Baltic Sea Basin.
• 5.2 Basin-scale Change in Run-off Patterns
• 5.3 Regional and Seasonal Variations
• 5.3.1 Sub-basin-scale Changes
• 5.3.2 Regional Discharge Patterns by Country
• 5.3.2.1 Estonia
• 5.3.2.2 Finland
• 5.3.2.3 Latvia
• 5.3.2.4 Lithuania
• 5.3.2.5 Poland
• 5.3.2.6 Russia
• 5.3.2.7 Sweden
• 5.4 River Ice Regime
• 5.5 Conclusion
• References
• 6 Recent Change---Terrestrial Cryosphere
• Abstract
• 6.1 Introduction
• 6.2 Recent and Present Change in Seasonal Snow Cover
• 6.2.1 Snow Cover Formation, Duration and Melt
• 6.2.2 Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent
• 6.2.3 Snow Cover Extent
• 6.2.4 Snow Structure and Properties
• 6.2.5 Extreme Events
• 6.3 Recent and Present Change in Glacier Extent and Mass Balance
• 6.4 Recent and Present Change in Frozen Ground
• 6.4.1 Seasonally Frozen Ground
• 6.4.2 Permafrost
• 6.5 Conclusion
• References
• 7 Recent Change---Marine Circulation and Stratification
• Abstract
• 7.1 Introduction
• 7.2 Trends and Variations in Water Temperature
• 7.3 Changes in Salinity, Stratification and Water Exchange
• 7.4 Circulation and Transport Patterns and Processes
• 7.4.1 Surface Circulation and Related Processes---Recent Findings
• 7.4.2 Dynamics in the Bottom Layer
• 7.4.3 Mixing
• 7.5 Sensitivity to Changes in Forcing
• 7.6 Conclusion
• References
• 8 Recent Change---Sea Ice
• Abstract
• 8.1 Introduction
• 8.2 Ice Extent
• 8.3 Ice Duration
• 8.4 Ice Thickness
• 8.5 Conclusion
• References
• 9 Recent Change---Sea Level and Wind Waves
• Abstract
• 9.1 Introduction
• 9.2 Sea Level Observations
• 9.2.1 Tide Gauges
• 9.2.2 Satellite Altimetry and GPS Measurements
• 9.3 Change in Mean Sea Level
• 9.3.1 Main Factors Driving Sea Level Change
• 9.3.1.1 Large-Scale Factors
• 9.3.1.2 Regional and Local Factors
• Land Movement
• Meteorological Influence.
• 9.3.2 Variations Within the Observational Period (Past 200 Years)
• 9.3.2.1 Long-Term Trends and Decadal Variations
• Absolute Sea Level
• Relative Sea Level
• 9.3.2.2 Changes in Seasonal Variability
• 9.3.2.3 Is Sea Level Rise Within the Baltic Sea Accelerating?
• 9.4 Extreme Sea Levels
• 9.4.1 Main Factors Affecting Extreme Sea Levels in the Baltic Sea
• 9.4.2 Statistics and Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels
• 9.5 Wind Waves
• 9.5.1 Instrumental Measurements
• 9.5.2 Visual Observations
• 9.5.3 Hindcast Simulations
• 9.5.3.1 Long-Term and Extreme Wave Properties
• 9.5.3.2 Spatio-Temporal Variations
• 9.6 Conclusion
• References
• Part IIIFuture Climate Change
• 10 Projected Change---Models and Methodology
• Abstract
• 10.1 Introduction
• 10.2 Dynamical Downscaling
• 10.2.1 Methodology for Dynamical Downscaling
• 10.2.2 Performance of RCMs in Reproducing Recent Climate
• 10.2.3 Developing and Extending RCMs
• 10.3 Statistical Downscaling
• 10.3.1 Model Output Statistics
• 10.3.1.1 Bias Correction Method
• 10.3.1.2 Perturbation of Observed Data
• 10.3.2 The`Perfect Prognosis' Approach
• 10.3.2.1 A Brand of Calibration Strategies
• 10.3.2.2 Regression Methods
• 10.3.2.3 Weather Classification Methods
• 10.3.2.4 Weather Generators
• 10.3.2.5 Randomisation
• 10.4 Ensembles, How to Use Them and How to Assess an Error of Projection
• 10.4.1 Different Types of Ensembles
• 10.4.2 Are Ensemble Projections Better Than Those Based on Single Climate Projections?
• 10.4.3 Performance-Based Weighting of Ensembles
• 10.4.4 Design and Use of GCM-RCM Ensemble Regional Climate Projections
• 10.5 Validation Techniques
• 10.5.1 Validation Data
• 10.5.2 Validation Indices
• 10.5.3 Validation Measures
• 10.5.4 Measures for Distribution-Wise Validation
• 10.5.5 Measures for Eventwise Validation.
• 10.5.6 Validation in a Climate Change Context
• 10.6 Skill of Downscaling Methods
• 10.7 Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling
• 10.8 Downscaling in the Context of Climate Change Impact Studies
• 10.9 Conclusion
• References
• 11 Projected Change---Atmosphere
• Abstract
• 11.1 Introduction
• 11.2 Emission Scenarios
• 11.3 Global Climate Models
• 11.4 Regional Climate Models
• 11.5 Temperature
• 11.6 Precipitation
• 11.7 Wind
• 11.8 Snow
• 11.9 Statistical Downscaling
• 11.10 Conclusion
• References
• 12 Projected Change---Hydrology
• Abstract
• 12.1 Introduction
• 12.2 Country-Specific Projections
• 12.2.1 Belarus
• 12.2.2 Denmark
• 12.2.3 Estonia
• 12.2.4 Finland
• 12.2.5 Germany
• 12.2.6 Latvia
• 12.2.7 Lithuania
• 12.2.8 Norway
• 12.2.9 Poland
• 12.2.10 Russia
• 12.2.11 Sweden
• 12.3 Conclusion
• References
• 13 Projected Change---Marine Physics
• Abstract
• 13.1 Introduction
• 13.2 Water Temperature
• 13.3 Salinity
• 13.4 Sea Ice
• 13.5 Storm Surges
• 13.6 Wind Waves
• 13.7 Conclusion
• References
• 14 Projected Change---Sea Level
• Abstract
• 14.1 Introduction
• 14.2 Sea-level Budget
• 14.3 Steric Expansion
• 14.4 Geoid Changes
• 14.5 Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps
• 14.6 Greenland Ice Sheet
• 14.7 Antarctic Ice Sheet
• 14.8 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
• 14.9 The Compiled Budget
• 14.10 Conclusion
• References
• Part IVEnvironmental Impacts of Climate Change
• 15 Environmental Impacts---Atmospheric Chemistry
• Abstract
• 15.1 Introduction
• 15.2 Emissions
• 15.2.1 Land-Based Sources
• 15.2.2 Shipping
• 15.2.2.1 Historical Perspective
• 15.2.2.2 Recent Developments
• 15.2.2.3 Future Projections
• 15.2.3 Land and Sea Emissions---Impact of Climate Change
• 15.3 Observed Concentrations and Deposition
• 15.3.1 Sulphur and Nitrogen
• 15.3.2 Ozone.
• 15.4 Modelled Concentrations and Deposition.