Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting.
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Place / Publishing House: | Cham : : Springer International Publishing AG,, 2019. ©2019. |
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Bengtsson, Tommy. Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. 1st ed. Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2019. ©2019. 1 online resource (341 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier Demographic Research Monographs Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 The Need for Accurate Mortality Forecasts Is Greater Than Ever Before -- 1.2 Determinants and Dynamics of Life Expectancy - Pensions Are Upping the Ante for the Challenge Facing the Art of Projecting... -- 1.3 Cause of Death Forecasts -- 1.4 Period and Cohort Perspectives -- 1.5 Joint Forecasting of Mortality in Similar Populations -- 1.6 From Scenarios to Stochastic Modelling -- 1.7 How Conditions in Early Life Affect Mortality in Later Life -- 1.8 The Increasing Gap in Life Expectancy with Respect to Position in the Income Distribution -- References -- Part I: Current Practice -- Chapter 2: Life Expectancy Is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes - A New Challenge for the Art of Projecti... -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Basic Pension Economics - The Role of Mortality -- 2.3 NDC and FDC Schemes - And Life Expectancy -- 2.4 Itś More Important Than Ever to Project Life Expectancy Accurately -- 2.5 Final Comments -- References -- Chapter 3: Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland -- 3.1 Modeen and Törnqvist -- 3.2 Official Forecasts -- 3.3 Predictive Distribution of Mortality -- 3.4 Applications -- References -- Chapter 4: Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.1 A Brief Description of the Norwegian Population Projection Model -- 4.2 A Short History of Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.3 Current Methodology of Mortality Projections -- 4.3.1 Target Life Expectancies -- 4.3.2 Difference in Target e0 for Males and Females -- 4.3.3 Life Expectancies in the First Projection Year -- 4.3.4 Path of e0 from the Initial Until the Target Year -- 4.3.5 Slope of e0 in the Target Year -- 4.3.6 Alternative Mortality Assumptions -- 4.3.7 Age Groups -- 4.3.8 Cohort Mortality -- 4.4 Age-Specific Trends in Mortality Rates -- 4.5 Projections of Age-Specific Mortality Rates. 4.6 Projection Results -- References -- Chapter 5: Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000-2050 Population Projection -- 5.1 Mortality Projection in Sweden -- 5.2 Sharply Lower Mortality in 1950-1999 -- 5.3 Reasons for the Decline in Mortality in 1980-1999 -- 5.4 Higher Average Life Expectancy in 1950-1999 -- 5.5 Future Mortality -- 5.6 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Immediate Future -- 5.7 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Longer Term -- 5.8 Mortality Trends over the Period 1950-2050 -- 5.9 Higher Average Life Expectancy -- 5.10 Assumptions Regarding Mortality Trends in Some Countries -- 5.11 Alternative Assumptions -- Chapter 6: Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach -- References -- Chapter 7: Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models - An Epidemiologistś Perspective -- 7.1 Are the Lifespans of Relatives Correlated? -- 7.2 The Relative Effects of Genetic and Environmental Factors on Lifespan -- 7.3 Prediction of Mortality -- 7.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 8: The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends -- References -- Part II: Probabilistic Models -- Chapter 9: Erroneous Population Forecasts -- 9.1 Forecast Accuracy -- 9.2 Why Population Forecasts Are Inaccurate -- 9.3 Empirical Evidence from Historical Forecasts -- 9.3.1 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Short Than for Long Forecast Durations -- 9.3.2 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Large Than for Small Populations -- 9.3.3 Forecasts of the Old and the Young Tend to Be Less Accurate Than Those of Intermediate Age Groups -- 9.3.4 Accuracy Differs Between Components and Regions -- 9.4 The Expected Accuracy of Current Forecasts -- 9.5 Probabilistic Forecasts: An Alternative to Forecast Variants -- 9.6 Challenges in Probabilistic Population Forecasting -- References. Chapter 10: Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Binomial and Poisson Models -- 10.3 Random Rates -- 10.4 Handling of Trends -- 10.5 On Judgment and Subjectivity in Statistical Modeling -- 10.6 On the Interpretation of Probabilities -- 10.7 Eliciting Expert Views on Uncertainty -- References -- Chapter 11: An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Stochastic Population Forecasts: Methodology -- 11.2.1 An Analysis of Errors of Past Forecasts -- 11.2.2 Model-Based Estimate of Forecast Errors -- 11.2.3 Expert Judgement -- 11.3 Using Expert Knowledge -- 11.4 Expert Knowledge in the Dutch Stochastic Mortality Forecasts -- 11.5 Conclusions -- Appendix: An Explanatory Model for Dutch Mortality -- References -- Chapter 12: Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Stochastic Forecasts -- 12.3 Mortality Forecasts -- 12.4 From Population to Pension Systems and Policy -- References -- Part III: The Linear Rise in Life Expectancy: History and Prospects -- Chapter 13: The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days -- 13.1 Better Forecasts -- 13.2 Continuing Belief in Looming Limits -- References -- Chapter 14: Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Linear Change in Life Expectancy over Long Historical Periods -- 14.3 What Is Fundamental, Age at Death or Risk of Death? -- 14.4 Using These Findings to Improve Mortality Forecasts -- 14.5 Considering National Mortality Change in an International Context -- 14.6 Extensions -- 14.6.1 Heterogeneous Targets -- 14.6.2 Heterogeneous Rates of Convergence -- 14.7 Forecasting Mortality -- References -- Chapter 15: Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series. 15.1 Why Forecast Life Expectancy? -- 15.2 Changes in Life Expectancy in 19 Industrialized Countries in 1950-2000 -- 15.3 Conditions on the Usefulness of an Auxiliary Series -- 15.4 Model Choice -- 15.5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 16: Life Expectancy Convergence Among Nations Since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income -- 16.1 Limits and Convergence in Life Expectancy -- 16.2 The Classic Article: Preston (1975) -- 16.3 Extending the Analysis -- 16.4 New Data -- 16.5 National Effects: A Shopping Analogy -- 16.6 Multilevel Models -- 16.7 Model Results -- 16.8 National Patterns -- 16.9 Convergence -- 16.10 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 17: Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present -- 17.1 Descriptive Overview -- 17.2 Causes -- 17.3 Summary and Discussion -- References -- Part IV: Causes of Death -- Chapter 18: How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update -- 18.1 Extrapolation of Mortality by Cause Risks Absurdity -- 18.2 Would More Sophisticated Methods Be Any Better? -- 18.2.1 A Better Adjustment of Chronological Series of Rates by Age -- 18.2.2 ``Age-Period ́́Adjustment (Lee-Carter Model) -- 18.2.3 ``Age-Period-Cohort ́́Adjustment (APC Model) -- 18.3 The Models Put to the Proof -- 18.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 19: Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden - Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Appro... -- 19.1 Introduction -- 19.2 The Relationships Between Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality -- 19.3 Extrapolating Mortality Trends or Predicting Disease-Specific Causes of Death -- 19.4 Predicting Mortality Based on Potential Elimination of Causes of Death -- 19.5 Predicting Mortality Based on Development of Risk Factors -- 19.6 Methodological Problems in Predicting Mortality Based on Risk Factor Predictions. 19.7 Future Mortality and Longevity -- 19.8 Implications for the Future -- References -- Chapter 20: How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death Is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts -- 20.1 Mortality Improvement in the UK -- 20.2 Current Methodologies and Research in the UK -- 20.3 Understanding the ``UK Cohort Effect ́́-- 20.4 Modelling Mortality by Cause of Death -- 20.5 Implications and Conclusions -- References -- Part V: Cohort Factors: How Conditions in Early Life Influence Mortality Later in Life -- Chapter 21: A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and M... -- 21.1 The Secular Mortality Decline: Early Life and Cohort Explanations and Their Indicators -- 21.2 Historical Trends and Socioeconomic Mortality Differences in a Life Course and Cohort Perspective -- 21.3 Cohort Effects on Mortality and Mortality Predictions: Indicators and Models -- References -- Chapter 22: Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies -- 22.1 Introduction -- 22.2 Famine Early in Life and Later Life Health -- 22.3 Later Life Health for Twins -- 22.4 Twins and Genetic Confounding -- 22.5 Overview -- References -- Chapter 23: The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan -- 23.1 Introduction -- 23.2 Data -- 23.3 Methods -- 23.4 Results -- 23.4.1 Differences in Lifespan in the United States, Austria, Denmark and Australia -- 23.4.2 Changes in the Month-of-Birth Pattern over Cohorts in Denmark -- 23.4.3 Changes in the 20-Year Survival Probability by Quarter of Birth in the United States -- 23.5 Discussion -- 23.6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 24: Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective: Nineteenth Century Sweden and Belgium -- 24.1 Introduction -- 24.2 Models -- 24.3 Data for Scania -- 24.4 Data for Sart. 24.5 Results. Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources. Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries. Electronic books. Keilman, Nico. Print version: Bengtsson, Tommy Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2019 9783030050740 ProQuest (Firm) https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/oeawat/detail.action?docID=5742719 Click to View |
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Bengtsson, Tommy. Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Demographic Research Monographs Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 The Need for Accurate Mortality Forecasts Is Greater Than Ever Before -- 1.2 Determinants and Dynamics of Life Expectancy - Pensions Are Upping the Ante for the Challenge Facing the Art of Projecting... -- 1.3 Cause of Death Forecasts -- 1.4 Period and Cohort Perspectives -- 1.5 Joint Forecasting of Mortality in Similar Populations -- 1.6 From Scenarios to Stochastic Modelling -- 1.7 How Conditions in Early Life Affect Mortality in Later Life -- 1.8 The Increasing Gap in Life Expectancy with Respect to Position in the Income Distribution -- References -- Part I: Current Practice -- Chapter 2: Life Expectancy Is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes - A New Challenge for the Art of Projecti... -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Basic Pension Economics - The Role of Mortality -- 2.3 NDC and FDC Schemes - And Life Expectancy -- 2.4 Itś More Important Than Ever to Project Life Expectancy Accurately -- 2.5 Final Comments -- References -- Chapter 3: Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland -- 3.1 Modeen and Törnqvist -- 3.2 Official Forecasts -- 3.3 Predictive Distribution of Mortality -- 3.4 Applications -- References -- Chapter 4: Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.1 A Brief Description of the Norwegian Population Projection Model -- 4.2 A Short History of Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.3 Current Methodology of Mortality Projections -- 4.3.1 Target Life Expectancies -- 4.3.2 Difference in Target e0 for Males and Females -- 4.3.3 Life Expectancies in the First Projection Year -- 4.3.4 Path of e0 from the Initial Until the Target Year -- 4.3.5 Slope of e0 in the Target Year -- 4.3.6 Alternative Mortality Assumptions -- 4.3.7 Age Groups -- 4.3.8 Cohort Mortality -- 4.4 Age-Specific Trends in Mortality Rates -- 4.5 Projections of Age-Specific Mortality Rates. 4.6 Projection Results -- References -- Chapter 5: Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000-2050 Population Projection -- 5.1 Mortality Projection in Sweden -- 5.2 Sharply Lower Mortality in 1950-1999 -- 5.3 Reasons for the Decline in Mortality in 1980-1999 -- 5.4 Higher Average Life Expectancy in 1950-1999 -- 5.5 Future Mortality -- 5.6 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Immediate Future -- 5.7 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Longer Term -- 5.8 Mortality Trends over the Period 1950-2050 -- 5.9 Higher Average Life Expectancy -- 5.10 Assumptions Regarding Mortality Trends in Some Countries -- 5.11 Alternative Assumptions -- Chapter 6: Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach -- References -- Chapter 7: Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models - An Epidemiologistś Perspective -- 7.1 Are the Lifespans of Relatives Correlated? -- 7.2 The Relative Effects of Genetic and Environmental Factors on Lifespan -- 7.3 Prediction of Mortality -- 7.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 8: The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends -- References -- Part II: Probabilistic Models -- Chapter 9: Erroneous Population Forecasts -- 9.1 Forecast Accuracy -- 9.2 Why Population Forecasts Are Inaccurate -- 9.3 Empirical Evidence from Historical Forecasts -- 9.3.1 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Short Than for Long Forecast Durations -- 9.3.2 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Large Than for Small Populations -- 9.3.3 Forecasts of the Old and the Young Tend to Be Less Accurate Than Those of Intermediate Age Groups -- 9.3.4 Accuracy Differs Between Components and Regions -- 9.4 The Expected Accuracy of Current Forecasts -- 9.5 Probabilistic Forecasts: An Alternative to Forecast Variants -- 9.6 Challenges in Probabilistic Population Forecasting -- References. Chapter 10: Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Binomial and Poisson Models -- 10.3 Random Rates -- 10.4 Handling of Trends -- 10.5 On Judgment and Subjectivity in Statistical Modeling -- 10.6 On the Interpretation of Probabilities -- 10.7 Eliciting Expert Views on Uncertainty -- References -- Chapter 11: An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Stochastic Population Forecasts: Methodology -- 11.2.1 An Analysis of Errors of Past Forecasts -- 11.2.2 Model-Based Estimate of Forecast Errors -- 11.2.3 Expert Judgement -- 11.3 Using Expert Knowledge -- 11.4 Expert Knowledge in the Dutch Stochastic Mortality Forecasts -- 11.5 Conclusions -- Appendix: An Explanatory Model for Dutch Mortality -- References -- Chapter 12: Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Stochastic Forecasts -- 12.3 Mortality Forecasts -- 12.4 From Population to Pension Systems and Policy -- References -- Part III: The Linear Rise in Life Expectancy: History and Prospects -- Chapter 13: The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days -- 13.1 Better Forecasts -- 13.2 Continuing Belief in Looming Limits -- References -- Chapter 14: Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Linear Change in Life Expectancy over Long Historical Periods -- 14.3 What Is Fundamental, Age at Death or Risk of Death? -- 14.4 Using These Findings to Improve Mortality Forecasts -- 14.5 Considering National Mortality Change in an International Context -- 14.6 Extensions -- 14.6.1 Heterogeneous Targets -- 14.6.2 Heterogeneous Rates of Convergence -- 14.7 Forecasting Mortality -- References -- Chapter 15: Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series. 15.1 Why Forecast Life Expectancy? -- 15.2 Changes in Life Expectancy in 19 Industrialized Countries in 1950-2000 -- 15.3 Conditions on the Usefulness of an Auxiliary Series -- 15.4 Model Choice -- 15.5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 16: Life Expectancy Convergence Among Nations Since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income -- 16.1 Limits and Convergence in Life Expectancy -- 16.2 The Classic Article: Preston (1975) -- 16.3 Extending the Analysis -- 16.4 New Data -- 16.5 National Effects: A Shopping Analogy -- 16.6 Multilevel Models -- 16.7 Model Results -- 16.8 National Patterns -- 16.9 Convergence -- 16.10 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 17: Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present -- 17.1 Descriptive Overview -- 17.2 Causes -- 17.3 Summary and Discussion -- References -- Part IV: Causes of Death -- Chapter 18: How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update -- 18.1 Extrapolation of Mortality by Cause Risks Absurdity -- 18.2 Would More Sophisticated Methods Be Any Better? -- 18.2.1 A Better Adjustment of Chronological Series of Rates by Age -- 18.2.2 ``Age-Period ́́Adjustment (Lee-Carter Model) -- 18.2.3 ``Age-Period-Cohort ́́Adjustment (APC Model) -- 18.3 The Models Put to the Proof -- 18.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 19: Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden - Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Appro... -- 19.1 Introduction -- 19.2 The Relationships Between Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality -- 19.3 Extrapolating Mortality Trends or Predicting Disease-Specific Causes of Death -- 19.4 Predicting Mortality Based on Potential Elimination of Causes of Death -- 19.5 Predicting Mortality Based on Development of Risk Factors -- 19.6 Methodological Problems in Predicting Mortality Based on Risk Factor Predictions. 19.7 Future Mortality and Longevity -- 19.8 Implications for the Future -- References -- Chapter 20: How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death Is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts -- 20.1 Mortality Improvement in the UK -- 20.2 Current Methodologies and Research in the UK -- 20.3 Understanding the ``UK Cohort Effect ́́-- 20.4 Modelling Mortality by Cause of Death -- 20.5 Implications and Conclusions -- References -- Part V: Cohort Factors: How Conditions in Early Life Influence Mortality Later in Life -- Chapter 21: A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and M... -- 21.1 The Secular Mortality Decline: Early Life and Cohort Explanations and Their Indicators -- 21.2 Historical Trends and Socioeconomic Mortality Differences in a Life Course and Cohort Perspective -- 21.3 Cohort Effects on Mortality and Mortality Predictions: Indicators and Models -- References -- Chapter 22: Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies -- 22.1 Introduction -- 22.2 Famine Early in Life and Later Life Health -- 22.3 Later Life Health for Twins -- 22.4 Twins and Genetic Confounding -- 22.5 Overview -- References -- Chapter 23: The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan -- 23.1 Introduction -- 23.2 Data -- 23.3 Methods -- 23.4 Results -- 23.4.1 Differences in Lifespan in the United States, Austria, Denmark and Australia -- 23.4.2 Changes in the Month-of-Birth Pattern over Cohorts in Denmark -- 23.4.3 Changes in the 20-Year Survival Probability by Quarter of Birth in the United States -- 23.5 Discussion -- 23.6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 24: Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective: Nineteenth Century Sweden and Belgium -- 24.1 Introduction -- 24.2 Models -- 24.3 Data for Scania -- 24.4 Data for Sart. 24.5 Results. |
author_facet |
Bengtsson, Tommy. Keilman, Nico. |
author_variant |
t b tb |
author2 |
Keilman, Nico. |
author2_variant |
n k nk |
author2_role |
TeilnehmendeR |
author_sort |
Bengtsson, Tommy. |
title |
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. |
title_full |
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. |
title_fullStr |
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. |
title_auth |
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. |
title_new |
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. |
title_sort |
old and new perspectives on mortality forecasting. |
series |
Demographic Research Monographs |
series2 |
Demographic Research Monographs |
publisher |
Springer International Publishing AG, |
publishDate |
2019 |
physical |
1 online resource (341 pages) |
edition |
1st ed. |
contents |
Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 The Need for Accurate Mortality Forecasts Is Greater Than Ever Before -- 1.2 Determinants and Dynamics of Life Expectancy - Pensions Are Upping the Ante for the Challenge Facing the Art of Projecting... -- 1.3 Cause of Death Forecasts -- 1.4 Period and Cohort Perspectives -- 1.5 Joint Forecasting of Mortality in Similar Populations -- 1.6 From Scenarios to Stochastic Modelling -- 1.7 How Conditions in Early Life Affect Mortality in Later Life -- 1.8 The Increasing Gap in Life Expectancy with Respect to Position in the Income Distribution -- References -- Part I: Current Practice -- Chapter 2: Life Expectancy Is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes - A New Challenge for the Art of Projecti... -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Basic Pension Economics - The Role of Mortality -- 2.3 NDC and FDC Schemes - And Life Expectancy -- 2.4 Itś More Important Than Ever to Project Life Expectancy Accurately -- 2.5 Final Comments -- References -- Chapter 3: Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland -- 3.1 Modeen and Törnqvist -- 3.2 Official Forecasts -- 3.3 Predictive Distribution of Mortality -- 3.4 Applications -- References -- Chapter 4: Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.1 A Brief Description of the Norwegian Population Projection Model -- 4.2 A Short History of Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.3 Current Methodology of Mortality Projections -- 4.3.1 Target Life Expectancies -- 4.3.2 Difference in Target e0 for Males and Females -- 4.3.3 Life Expectancies in the First Projection Year -- 4.3.4 Path of e0 from the Initial Until the Target Year -- 4.3.5 Slope of e0 in the Target Year -- 4.3.6 Alternative Mortality Assumptions -- 4.3.7 Age Groups -- 4.3.8 Cohort Mortality -- 4.4 Age-Specific Trends in Mortality Rates -- 4.5 Projections of Age-Specific Mortality Rates. 4.6 Projection Results -- References -- Chapter 5: Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000-2050 Population Projection -- 5.1 Mortality Projection in Sweden -- 5.2 Sharply Lower Mortality in 1950-1999 -- 5.3 Reasons for the Decline in Mortality in 1980-1999 -- 5.4 Higher Average Life Expectancy in 1950-1999 -- 5.5 Future Mortality -- 5.6 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Immediate Future -- 5.7 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Longer Term -- 5.8 Mortality Trends over the Period 1950-2050 -- 5.9 Higher Average Life Expectancy -- 5.10 Assumptions Regarding Mortality Trends in Some Countries -- 5.11 Alternative Assumptions -- Chapter 6: Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach -- References -- Chapter 7: Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models - An Epidemiologistś Perspective -- 7.1 Are the Lifespans of Relatives Correlated? -- 7.2 The Relative Effects of Genetic and Environmental Factors on Lifespan -- 7.3 Prediction of Mortality -- 7.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 8: The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends -- References -- Part II: Probabilistic Models -- Chapter 9: Erroneous Population Forecasts -- 9.1 Forecast Accuracy -- 9.2 Why Population Forecasts Are Inaccurate -- 9.3 Empirical Evidence from Historical Forecasts -- 9.3.1 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Short Than for Long Forecast Durations -- 9.3.2 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Large Than for Small Populations -- 9.3.3 Forecasts of the Old and the Young Tend to Be Less Accurate Than Those of Intermediate Age Groups -- 9.3.4 Accuracy Differs Between Components and Regions -- 9.4 The Expected Accuracy of Current Forecasts -- 9.5 Probabilistic Forecasts: An Alternative to Forecast Variants -- 9.6 Challenges in Probabilistic Population Forecasting -- References. Chapter 10: Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Binomial and Poisson Models -- 10.3 Random Rates -- 10.4 Handling of Trends -- 10.5 On Judgment and Subjectivity in Statistical Modeling -- 10.6 On the Interpretation of Probabilities -- 10.7 Eliciting Expert Views on Uncertainty -- References -- Chapter 11: An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Stochastic Population Forecasts: Methodology -- 11.2.1 An Analysis of Errors of Past Forecasts -- 11.2.2 Model-Based Estimate of Forecast Errors -- 11.2.3 Expert Judgement -- 11.3 Using Expert Knowledge -- 11.4 Expert Knowledge in the Dutch Stochastic Mortality Forecasts -- 11.5 Conclusions -- Appendix: An Explanatory Model for Dutch Mortality -- References -- Chapter 12: Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Stochastic Forecasts -- 12.3 Mortality Forecasts -- 12.4 From Population to Pension Systems and Policy -- References -- Part III: The Linear Rise in Life Expectancy: History and Prospects -- Chapter 13: The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days -- 13.1 Better Forecasts -- 13.2 Continuing Belief in Looming Limits -- References -- Chapter 14: Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Linear Change in Life Expectancy over Long Historical Periods -- 14.3 What Is Fundamental, Age at Death or Risk of Death? -- 14.4 Using These Findings to Improve Mortality Forecasts -- 14.5 Considering National Mortality Change in an International Context -- 14.6 Extensions -- 14.6.1 Heterogeneous Targets -- 14.6.2 Heterogeneous Rates of Convergence -- 14.7 Forecasting Mortality -- References -- Chapter 15: Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series. 15.1 Why Forecast Life Expectancy? -- 15.2 Changes in Life Expectancy in 19 Industrialized Countries in 1950-2000 -- 15.3 Conditions on the Usefulness of an Auxiliary Series -- 15.4 Model Choice -- 15.5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 16: Life Expectancy Convergence Among Nations Since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income -- 16.1 Limits and Convergence in Life Expectancy -- 16.2 The Classic Article: Preston (1975) -- 16.3 Extending the Analysis -- 16.4 New Data -- 16.5 National Effects: A Shopping Analogy -- 16.6 Multilevel Models -- 16.7 Model Results -- 16.8 National Patterns -- 16.9 Convergence -- 16.10 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 17: Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present -- 17.1 Descriptive Overview -- 17.2 Causes -- 17.3 Summary and Discussion -- References -- Part IV: Causes of Death -- Chapter 18: How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update -- 18.1 Extrapolation of Mortality by Cause Risks Absurdity -- 18.2 Would More Sophisticated Methods Be Any Better? -- 18.2.1 A Better Adjustment of Chronological Series of Rates by Age -- 18.2.2 ``Age-Period ́́Adjustment (Lee-Carter Model) -- 18.2.3 ``Age-Period-Cohort ́́Adjustment (APC Model) -- 18.3 The Models Put to the Proof -- 18.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 19: Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden - Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Appro... -- 19.1 Introduction -- 19.2 The Relationships Between Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality -- 19.3 Extrapolating Mortality Trends or Predicting Disease-Specific Causes of Death -- 19.4 Predicting Mortality Based on Potential Elimination of Causes of Death -- 19.5 Predicting Mortality Based on Development of Risk Factors -- 19.6 Methodological Problems in Predicting Mortality Based on Risk Factor Predictions. 19.7 Future Mortality and Longevity -- 19.8 Implications for the Future -- References -- Chapter 20: How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death Is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts -- 20.1 Mortality Improvement in the UK -- 20.2 Current Methodologies and Research in the UK -- 20.3 Understanding the ``UK Cohort Effect ́́-- 20.4 Modelling Mortality by Cause of Death -- 20.5 Implications and Conclusions -- References -- Part V: Cohort Factors: How Conditions in Early Life Influence Mortality Later in Life -- Chapter 21: A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and M... -- 21.1 The Secular Mortality Decline: Early Life and Cohort Explanations and Their Indicators -- 21.2 Historical Trends and Socioeconomic Mortality Differences in a Life Course and Cohort Perspective -- 21.3 Cohort Effects on Mortality and Mortality Predictions: Indicators and Models -- References -- Chapter 22: Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies -- 22.1 Introduction -- 22.2 Famine Early in Life and Later Life Health -- 22.3 Later Life Health for Twins -- 22.4 Twins and Genetic Confounding -- 22.5 Overview -- References -- Chapter 23: The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan -- 23.1 Introduction -- 23.2 Data -- 23.3 Methods -- 23.4 Results -- 23.4.1 Differences in Lifespan in the United States, Austria, Denmark and Australia -- 23.4.2 Changes in the Month-of-Birth Pattern over Cohorts in Denmark -- 23.4.3 Changes in the 20-Year Survival Probability by Quarter of Birth in the United States -- 23.5 Discussion -- 23.6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 24: Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective: Nineteenth Century Sweden and Belgium -- 24.1 Introduction -- 24.2 Models -- 24.3 Data for Scania -- 24.4 Data for Sart. 24.5 Results. |
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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>11043nam a22004693i 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">5005742719</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">MiAaPQ</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20240229073832.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="006">m o d | </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr cnu||||||||</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">240229s2019 xx o ||||0 eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9783030050757</subfield><subfield code="q">(electronic bk.)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="z">9783030050740</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(MiAaPQ)5005742719</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(Au-PeEL)EBL5742719</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1091623831</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">MiAaPQ</subfield><subfield code="b">eng</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield><subfield code="e">pn</subfield><subfield code="c">MiAaPQ</subfield><subfield code="d">MiAaPQ</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">HB848-3697</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Bengtsson, Tommy.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="250" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1st ed.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Cham :</subfield><subfield code="b">Springer International Publishing AG,</subfield><subfield code="c">2019.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="c">©2019.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 online resource (341 pages)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">text</subfield><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">computer</subfield><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">online resource</subfield><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Demographic Research Monographs</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 The Need for Accurate Mortality Forecasts Is Greater Than Ever Before -- 1.2 Determinants and Dynamics of Life Expectancy - Pensions Are Upping the Ante for the Challenge Facing the Art of Projecting... -- 1.3 Cause of Death Forecasts -- 1.4 Period and Cohort Perspectives -- 1.5 Joint Forecasting of Mortality in Similar Populations -- 1.6 From Scenarios to Stochastic Modelling -- 1.7 How Conditions in Early Life Affect Mortality in Later Life -- 1.8 The Increasing Gap in Life Expectancy with Respect to Position in the Income Distribution -- References -- Part I: Current Practice -- Chapter 2: Life Expectancy Is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes - A New Challenge for the Art of Projecti... -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Basic Pension Economics - The Role of Mortality -- 2.3 NDC and FDC Schemes - And Life Expectancy -- 2.4 Itś More Important Than Ever to Project Life Expectancy Accurately -- 2.5 Final Comments -- References -- Chapter 3: Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland -- 3.1 Modeen and Törnqvist -- 3.2 Official Forecasts -- 3.3 Predictive Distribution of Mortality -- 3.4 Applications -- References -- Chapter 4: Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.1 A Brief Description of the Norwegian Population Projection Model -- 4.2 A Short History of Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.3 Current Methodology of Mortality Projections -- 4.3.1 Target Life Expectancies -- 4.3.2 Difference in Target e0 for Males and Females -- 4.3.3 Life Expectancies in the First Projection Year -- 4.3.4 Path of e0 from the Initial Until the Target Year -- 4.3.5 Slope of e0 in the Target Year -- 4.3.6 Alternative Mortality Assumptions -- 4.3.7 Age Groups -- 4.3.8 Cohort Mortality -- 4.4 Age-Specific Trends in Mortality Rates -- 4.5 Projections of Age-Specific Mortality Rates.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">4.6 Projection Results -- References -- Chapter 5: Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000-2050 Population Projection -- 5.1 Mortality Projection in Sweden -- 5.2 Sharply Lower Mortality in 1950-1999 -- 5.3 Reasons for the Decline in Mortality in 1980-1999 -- 5.4 Higher Average Life Expectancy in 1950-1999 -- 5.5 Future Mortality -- 5.6 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Immediate Future -- 5.7 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Longer Term -- 5.8 Mortality Trends over the Period 1950-2050 -- 5.9 Higher Average Life Expectancy -- 5.10 Assumptions Regarding Mortality Trends in Some Countries -- 5.11 Alternative Assumptions -- Chapter 6: Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach -- References -- Chapter 7: Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models - An Epidemiologistś Perspective -- 7.1 Are the Lifespans of Relatives Correlated? -- 7.2 The Relative Effects of Genetic and Environmental Factors on Lifespan -- 7.3 Prediction of Mortality -- 7.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 8: The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends -- References -- Part II: Probabilistic Models -- Chapter 9: Erroneous Population Forecasts -- 9.1 Forecast Accuracy -- 9.2 Why Population Forecasts Are Inaccurate -- 9.3 Empirical Evidence from Historical Forecasts -- 9.3.1 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Short Than for Long Forecast Durations -- 9.3.2 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Large Than for Small Populations -- 9.3.3 Forecasts of the Old and the Young Tend to Be Less Accurate Than Those of Intermediate Age Groups -- 9.3.4 Accuracy Differs Between Components and Regions -- 9.4 The Expected Accuracy of Current Forecasts -- 9.5 Probabilistic Forecasts: An Alternative to Forecast Variants -- 9.6 Challenges in Probabilistic Population Forecasting -- References.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Chapter 10: Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Binomial and Poisson Models -- 10.3 Random Rates -- 10.4 Handling of Trends -- 10.5 On Judgment and Subjectivity in Statistical Modeling -- 10.6 On the Interpretation of Probabilities -- 10.7 Eliciting Expert Views on Uncertainty -- References -- Chapter 11: An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Stochastic Population Forecasts: Methodology -- 11.2.1 An Analysis of Errors of Past Forecasts -- 11.2.2 Model-Based Estimate of Forecast Errors -- 11.2.3 Expert Judgement -- 11.3 Using Expert Knowledge -- 11.4 Expert Knowledge in the Dutch Stochastic Mortality Forecasts -- 11.5 Conclusions -- Appendix: An Explanatory Model for Dutch Mortality -- References -- Chapter 12: Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Stochastic Forecasts -- 12.3 Mortality Forecasts -- 12.4 From Population to Pension Systems and Policy -- References -- Part III: The Linear Rise in Life Expectancy: History and Prospects -- Chapter 13: The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days -- 13.1 Better Forecasts -- 13.2 Continuing Belief in Looming Limits -- References -- Chapter 14: Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Linear Change in Life Expectancy over Long Historical Periods -- 14.3 What Is Fundamental, Age at Death or Risk of Death? -- 14.4 Using These Findings to Improve Mortality Forecasts -- 14.5 Considering National Mortality Change in an International Context -- 14.6 Extensions -- 14.6.1 Heterogeneous Targets -- 14.6.2 Heterogeneous Rates of Convergence -- 14.7 Forecasting Mortality -- References -- Chapter 15: Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">15.1 Why Forecast Life Expectancy? -- 15.2 Changes in Life Expectancy in 19 Industrialized Countries in 1950-2000 -- 15.3 Conditions on the Usefulness of an Auxiliary Series -- 15.4 Model Choice -- 15.5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 16: Life Expectancy Convergence Among Nations Since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income -- 16.1 Limits and Convergence in Life Expectancy -- 16.2 The Classic Article: Preston (1975) -- 16.3 Extending the Analysis -- 16.4 New Data -- 16.5 National Effects: A Shopping Analogy -- 16.6 Multilevel Models -- 16.7 Model Results -- 16.8 National Patterns -- 16.9 Convergence -- 16.10 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 17: Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present -- 17.1 Descriptive Overview -- 17.2 Causes -- 17.3 Summary and Discussion -- References -- Part IV: Causes of Death -- Chapter 18: How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update -- 18.1 Extrapolation of Mortality by Cause Risks Absurdity -- 18.2 Would More Sophisticated Methods Be Any Better? -- 18.2.1 A Better Adjustment of Chronological Series of Rates by Age -- 18.2.2 ``Age-Period ́́Adjustment (Lee-Carter Model) -- 18.2.3 ``Age-Period-Cohort ́́Adjustment (APC Model) -- 18.3 The Models Put to the Proof -- 18.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 19: Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden - Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Appro... -- 19.1 Introduction -- 19.2 The Relationships Between Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality -- 19.3 Extrapolating Mortality Trends or Predicting Disease-Specific Causes of Death -- 19.4 Predicting Mortality Based on Potential Elimination of Causes of Death -- 19.5 Predicting Mortality Based on Development of Risk Factors -- 19.6 Methodological Problems in Predicting Mortality Based on Risk Factor Predictions.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">19.7 Future Mortality and Longevity -- 19.8 Implications for the Future -- References -- Chapter 20: How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death Is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts -- 20.1 Mortality Improvement in the UK -- 20.2 Current Methodologies and Research in the UK -- 20.3 Understanding the ``UK Cohort Effect ́́-- 20.4 Modelling Mortality by Cause of Death -- 20.5 Implications and Conclusions -- References -- Part V: Cohort Factors: How Conditions in Early Life Influence Mortality Later in Life -- Chapter 21: A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and M... -- 21.1 The Secular Mortality Decline: Early Life and Cohort Explanations and Their Indicators -- 21.2 Historical Trends and Socioeconomic Mortality Differences in a Life Course and Cohort Perspective -- 21.3 Cohort Effects on Mortality and Mortality Predictions: Indicators and Models -- References -- Chapter 22: Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies -- 22.1 Introduction -- 22.2 Famine Early in Life and Later Life Health -- 22.3 Later Life Health for Twins -- 22.4 Twins and Genetic Confounding -- 22.5 Overview -- References -- Chapter 23: The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan -- 23.1 Introduction -- 23.2 Data -- 23.3 Methods -- 23.4 Results -- 23.4.1 Differences in Lifespan in the United States, Austria, Denmark and Australia -- 23.4.2 Changes in the Month-of-Birth Pattern over Cohorts in Denmark -- 23.4.3 Changes in the 20-Year Survival Probability by Quarter of Birth in the United States -- 23.5 Discussion -- 23.6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 24: Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective: Nineteenth Century Sweden and Belgium -- 24.1 Introduction -- 24.2 Models -- 24.3 Data for Scania -- 24.4 Data for Sart.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">24.5 Results.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="588" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="590" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. 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